425
Filed by The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
and deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-6(b) under the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Company: Commerce Bancorp, Inc.
SEC Registration Statement No.: 333-147304
The information presented, which includes a transcript from an RBC Capital Markets Canadian Bank
CEO Conference on January 15, 2008, may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and comparable safe harbour provisions of
applicable Canadian legislation, including, but not limited to, statements relating to anticipated
financial and operating results, the companies plans, objectives, expectations and intentions,
cost savings and other statements, including words such as anticipate, believe, plan,
estimate, expect, intend, will, should, may, and other similar expressions. Such
statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of our management and involve a
number of significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the
results anticipated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause The
Toronto-Dominion Banks (the Bank) results to differ materially from those described in the
forward looking statements can be found in the Banks 2007 Annual Report on Form 40-F filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission and available at the Securities and Exchange Commissions
Internet site (http://www.sec.gov). In addition to the factors found in the Banks 2007 Annual
Report, the following factors relating to the Commerce Bancorp, Inc. (Commerce) transaction,
among others, could also cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the
forward-looking statements described earlier: the ability to obtain the approval of the transaction
by Commerce stockholders; the ability to realize the expected synergies resulting for the
transaction in the amounts or in the timeframe anticipated; the ability to integrate Commerces
businesses into those of TD Bank Financial Group in a timely and cost-efficient manner; and the
ability to obtain governmental approvals of the transaction or to satisfy other conditions to the
transaction on the proposed terms and timeframe.
The Bank and Commerce have filed with the SEC a Registration Statement on Form F-4 containing a
definitive proxy statement/prospectus that has been mailed to Commerce shareholders and each of the
companies plans to file with the SEC other documents regarding the proposed transaction.
Shareholders are encouraged to read the definitive proxy statement/prospectus regarding the
proposed transaction, as well as other documents filed with the SEC, because they contain important
information. Shareholders may obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus, as
well as other filings containing information about the Bank and Commerce, without charge, at the
SECs Internet site (http://www.sec.gov). Copies of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and
the filings with the SEC that are incorporated by reference in the definitive proxy
statement/prospectus can also be obtained, without charge, by directing a request to TD Bank
Financial Group, 66 Wellington Street West, Toronto, ON M5K 1A2, Attention: Investor Relations,
(416) 308-9030, or to Commerce Bancorp, Inc., Shareholder Relations, 1701 Route 70 East, Cherry
Hill, NJ 08034-5400, 1-888-751-9000.
The Bank, Commerce, their respective directors and executive officers and other persons may be
deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in respect of the proposed transaction.
Information regarding the Banks directors and executive officers is available in its Annual Report
on Form 40-F for the year ended October 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 29, 2007, and in its notice of annual meeting and proxy circular for its
most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February
23, 2007. Information regarding Commerces directors and executive officers is available in
Commerces proxy statement for its most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission on April 13, 2007. Other information regarding the participants in the
proxy solicitation and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by security holdings
or otherwise, are contained in the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and other relevant
materials filed with the SEC.
THE FOLLOWING IS A TRANSCRIPT FROM AN RBC CAPITAL MARKETS CANADIAN BANK CEO CONFERENCE ON
JANUARY 15, 2008.
TD BANK FINANCIAL GROUP
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS CANADIAN BANK CEO CONFERENCE
JANUARY 15, 2008
DISCLAIMER
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE TORONTO-DOMINION
BANKS (THE BANK) PRESENTATION AT THE RBC CAPITAL MARKETS CANADIAN BANK CEO CONFERENCE AND WHILE
EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR
INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE. IN NO WAY DOES THE BANK ASSUME
ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED
ON THE BANKS WEB SITE OR IN THIS TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE CONFERENCE REPLAY
ITSELF AND THE BANKS SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
From time to time, the Bank makes written and oral forward-looking statements, including in this
transcript, in other filings with Canadian regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC), and in other communications. In addition, the Banks senior management may make
forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, representatives of the media and others.
All such statements are made pursuant to the safe harbour provisions of the U.S. Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation.
Forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Banks objectives and
targets for 2008 and beyond, and strategies to achieve them, the outlook for the Banks business
lines, and the Banks anticipated financial performance. The economic assumptions for 2008 for each
of our business segments are set out in the 2007 Annual Report under the headings Economic
Outlook and Business Outlook and Focus for 2008, as updated in the subsequently filed quarterly
Reports to Shareholders. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as
will, should, believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, plan, may and
could. By their very nature, these statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to
inherent risks and uncertainties, general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ
materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors
many of which are beyond our control that could cause such differences include: credit,
market (including equity and commodity), liquidity, interest rate, operational, reputational,
insurance, strategic, foreign exchange, regulatory, legal and other risks discussed in the
management discussion and analysis section of the Banks 2007 Annual Report and in other regulatory
filings made in Canada and with the SEC; general business and economic conditions in Canada, the
U.S. and other countries in which the Bank conducts business, as well as the effect of changes in
monetary policy in those jurisdictions and changes in the foreign exchange rates for the currencies
of those jurisdictions; the degree of competition in the markets in which the Bank operates, both
from established competitors and new entrants; the accuracy and completeness of information the
Bank receives on customers and counterparties; the development and introduction of new products and
services in markets; developing new distribution channels and realizing increased revenue from
these channels; the Banks ability to execute its strategies, including its integration, growth and
acquisition strategies and those of its subsidiaries, particularly in the U.S.; changes in
accounting policies and methods the Bank uses to report its financial condition, including
uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates; the effect of applying
future accounting changes; global capital market activity; the Banks ability to attract and retain
key executives; reliance on third parties to provide components of the Banks business
infrastructure; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to the Bank or its
affiliates as such obligations relate to the handling of personal information; technological
changes; the use of new technologies in unprecedented ways to defraud the Bank or its customers;
legislative and regulatory developments; change in tax laws; unexpected judicial or regulatory
proceedings; continued negative impact of the U.S. securities litigation environment; unexpected
changes in consumer spending and saving habits; the adequacy of the Banks risk management
framework, including the risk that the Banks risk management models do not take into account all
relevant factors; the possible impact on the Banks businesses of international conflicts and
terrorism; acts of God, such as earthquakes; the effects of disease or illness on local, national
or international economies; and the effects of disruptions to public infrastructure, such as
transportation, communication, power or water supply. A substantial amount of the Banks business
involves making loans or otherwise committing resources to specific companies, industries or
countries. Unforeseen events affecting such borrowers, industries or countries could have a
material adverse effect on the Banks financial results, businesses, financial condition or
liquidity. The preceding list is not exhaustive of all possible factors. Other factors could also
adversely affect the Banks results. For more information, see the discussion starting on page 59
of the Banks 2007 Annual Report. All such factors should be considered carefully when making
decisions with respect to the Bank, and undue reliance should not be placed on the Banks
forward-looking statements. The Bank does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements,
whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf.
In addition to the factors described above, the following factors relating to the Commerce Bancorp,
Inc. (Commerce) transaction, among others, could also cause actual results to differ materially
from those expressed in the forward-looking statements described on the earlier slide: the ability
to obtain the approval of the transaction by Commerce stockholders; the ability to realize the
expected synergies resulting for the transaction in the amounts or in the timeframe anticipated;
the ability to integrate Commerces businesses into those of TD Bank Financial Group in a timely
and cost-efficient manner; and the ability to obtain governmental approvals of the transaction or
to satisfy other conditions to the transaction on the proposed terms and timeframe.
The proposed merger transaction involving the Bank and Commerce will be submitted to
Commerces shareholders for their consideration. The Bank and Commerce have filed with the SEC a
Registration Statement on Form F-4 containing a definitive proxy statement/prospectus and each of
the companies plans to file with the SEC other documents regarding the proposed transaction.
Shareholders are encouraged to read the definitive proxy statement/prospectus regarding the
proposed transaction, as well as other documents filed with the SEC because they contain important
information. Shareholders may obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus, as
well as other filings containing information about the Bank and Commerce, without charge, at the
SECs Internet site (http://www.sec.gov). Copies of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and
the filings with the SEC that will be incorporated by reference in the definitive proxy
statement/prospectus can also be obtained, without charge, by directing a request to TD Bank
Financial Group, 66 Wellington Street West, Toronto, ON M5K 1A2, Attention: Investor Relations,
(416) 308-9030, or to Commerce Bancorp, Inc., Shareholder Relations, 1701 Route 70 East, Cherry
Hill, NJ 08034-5400, 1-888-751-9000.
The Bank, Commerce, their respective directors and executive officers and other persons may be
deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in respect of the proposed transaction.
Information regarding the Banks directors and executive officers is available in its Annual Report
on Form 40-F for the year ended October 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 29, 2007, its notice of annual meeting and proxy circular for its most
recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 23,
2007. Information regarding Commerces directors and executive officers is available in Commerces
proxy statement for its most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission on April 13, 2007. Other information regarding the participants in the proxy
solicitation and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by security holdings or
otherwise, are contained in the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and other relevant materials
filed with the SEC.
CORPORATE PARTICIPANT
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Ed Clark
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President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group |
CONFERENCE PARTICIPANT
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André Hardy
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RBC Capital Markets Analyst |
PRESENTATION
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, well get started with our last big bank presenter. We have Ed Clark, President and CEO of
TD [Bank] Financial Group, a position hes held since late 2002. And of course, Ed came to TD
following the Canada Trust merger in 2000. Eds known as a retail banker, but dont forget hes
spent time in capital markets and many years in government, as well.
So, Ed, perhaps the first question Ill ask you is youve clearly been a bank thats been less
impacted by the hot topics or the topics weve seen, but perhaps address the indirect impacts,
whether it be margins, Canada or U.S., and perhaps how you take advantage of the dislocation weve
seen in capital markets and credit markets.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Well, I should actually answer thats your second question. The first question is was I
carrying my RIM, and I said yes. There it is, sir. Thats my RIM. So Ill show you how out of it
in technology terms I am.
So I think for us Ive been asked the question a lot of times about what keeps you up at night,
what are you worrying about? Its the same sort of question. One of the things I keep saying into
our system is you may not be on the train, but if youre standing on the station watching this
train go by and it has a train wreck, you can still get hurt.
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And so, I think the thing that we worry about most is unanticipated second and third rounds effects
of what happens when you have this kind of financial services crisis. And so, the obvious thing
for us within Canada is the prime/BA spread has narrowed. Its probably, I dont know, well see
at the end of the first quarter I think its probably less impactful to us than it is for other
people because weve got such a strong deposit base. But theres no question thats a negative
factor for us.
In our credit derivative business, I think if we talk to the marketplace, we have historically run
a very simple basis trade, buying a liquid instrument, a cash instrument, offsetting it with the
non-cash instrument, same duration, same term. That trade has kind of disappeared. And when it
disappears, then what happens is you take the mark to market. Youll get the money back in the
end, but in the interim period.
And then the third impact has been in the United States, in the deposit business. We had thought
in the summer, leading into August, we actually found the deposit business turning around.
Certainly Banknorth is growing deposits quite strongly, and Id say that actually continued for a
fair amount of time, into sort of October, when the U.S., the whole banking industry seemed to
deteriorate again.
And I think the big thing has been the arrival of the large mega banks into the U.S. retail market,
using the retail market as a vehicle to raise wholesale funds. And so, the pricing regime, I
think, is unprecedented, that at one point we noticed that when the last Fed cut came, many of the
major players raised their deposit rates, rather than lowered the deposit rates, because really the
cut was reflecting the troubles in the wholesale raising capacities of these major U.S. banks.
And so, thats definitely youre facing a dilemma that you either slow down your deposit growth or
youll hurt your margins. So Id say those are the three things that affect us. We scour the
market to say, as the bank that didnt get into trouble, is there something that we ought to be
doing?
Id say probably the honest answer is we have our plate full with what were doing now. Were not
unhappy with how were positioned, and so Im not sure. It would have to be a pretty good
opportunity for us to do something thats not what were doing right now.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Sure, and talk about perhaps the philosophy over the last years has been very clear lots of risk
in the market that wasnt priced, you were not willing to take it. Do we see the approach shift in
upcoming years, or was this a permanent risk reduction that was undertaken?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Yes, I dont actually call it a maybe I do sometimes say risk reduction, but I think it is more
nature of risk you like or not. I mean, I think if you start back philosophically, were
operators. What we hammer away at is we have to be building franchise. You have to, if you want
to run one of my businesses, have to be able to describe in fairly simple terms why youre going to
win the ties. So why did you go up against a competitor? What is the actual permanent competitive
advantage you built yourself?
So you start with a philosophical view that says thats what you are. Youre franchise builders.
And then, secondly, I take a look at, I guess, as a Canadian bank, you look and you say, why
doesnt every investor just put all his money in the Canadian banks? And theres a simple answer
to that is, well, because they blow up every seven years.
And so you say you run these businesses, and in our case, now 85% of our earnings that the debate
is are our earnings going to grow next year and how fast theyre going to grow, not are they going
to blow up. And then you say, well, then you go out on this end of the business and you attach
this little volatility to it and youre just destroying the P/E value of that 85%, so why do you do
that?
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So I think we came and basically said, well, why dont we just take out the tail risk? This isnt
that complicated. Lets just go through and every time we see tail risk, get rid of the tail
risks. And so, we didnt write reinsurance. We bought reinsurance. We didnt write credit
derivatives. We bought credit derivatives.
So just across the board, we looked at the structured products and said what was Coventry?
Coventry was having commercial paper buyers buy our right-tail risk. Thats really what that
structure was. And so we said lets just get out of all of that.
But that doesnt mean I dont want to pretend that we dont take risks. We do take transparent,
understandable risk, and I think thats why our securities dealer has grown where its grown to.
And frankly, when I tell investors, dont kid yourself, Ive substituted a different form of risk,
which is operational risk. When you pay the goodwill that we paid over the last few years, growing
this franchise, were betting that we can absorb those entities, operate them and continue to have
them grow earnings.
So its not like were taking no risk. Its just were not taking the traditional risks that most
banks seem to like, which is tail, market and credit risk. Instead, weve substituted operational
risks that we can be better operators.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, lets talk about the U.S. because, clearly, the integration of Commerce will get a lot of
focus, as well will your initiatives with Banknorth. So perhaps address integration risk, what you
see as being the largest risk with Commerce.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I dont want to say that were not because the moment I stop worrying, then Ill have a problem.
But I do think that we come at this with a lot of success in taking these entities. As I say, I
think one of the great characteristics of TD and I was bought, dont forget, by TD is that
you can go across TD and say, well, how many people came from Canada Trust? And a bunch of hands
go up. Or you go into TD Securities, how many came from Newcrest? You go to Meloche Monnex, how
many are still in Newcrest? You go to TD Ameritrade. How many in TD Ameritrade?
We have a whole series of buying businesses and keeping the leadership team and motivating them and
proving to them that they can grow their business faster as part of our team than they could do it
if theyre on their own.
And so, I think the core risk that the outside worries about is that we will blow that, as I would
say, they will come along and close them off Sundays or take the wow factor out and remove the dog
bowls or something stupid like that. I dont think thats what our history is. Thats not what we
would naturally do.
So I think it doesnt mean that there are not lots of issues, and I would say weve made the game
to be open with people. Weve made the problem somewhat more complicated than it needs to be
because we are making this into a North American bank at the same time. And so, this is almost a
three-way merger between Banknorth, Commerce and TD. I think in the end of the day that will
produce a yet more powerful engine, but it does mean its a little bit more complicated.
But I think the great news is that we continue to have positive surprises as we get to know
Commerce better, and so I think weve got the people engaged. I think they actually do believe.
And in this game, thats what you have to have. You have to have passion and believe and everyone
aligned as to where youre going to go.
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And I think we have the potential of occupying a space that no one else occupies, a convenience
service space. Its something Ive believed passionately in for more than 15 years. I think it
just constantly proves itself out, and I think thats what we want to do is create a North American
bank that owns that space.
Unidentified Company Representative: Sure. And on the topic of credit I think I drank out of
that.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Sorry, thats yours. Sorry.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
But on credit risk, maybe discuss credit risk within Banknorth, as well as Commerce, and clearly
weve had higher provisions at both banks. Whats needed to take those provisions higher? Do we
need to see deterioration beyond the asset classes that weve seen so far, and what could be next,
in your view?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Yes. I think, frankly, we continue to be surprised how well both of those portfolios are doing.
And so, I think one of the interesting dilemmas for everybody in financial services is you go out
there and you look at that market and stuff like that, it is doom and gloom, and yet you cant
actually see it in your numbers. And so, you keep saying, well, its got to start showing up in my
numbers because the world is going to hell in a hand basket, but it isnt showing up.
And so, yes, weve been increasing our provisions. In all cases, were increasing our provisions
more than our charge-offs, and were quite consciously saying, go into this world and get the
reserves. If you look at our numbers, were very conservative on our general reserves. We like to
have when we go into bad times, we like to have some money stocked away. And so, we are going
to continue to grow and increase our reserves as long as the world looks like its that bad. But
so far, NPAs are not growing rapidly in the United States. I think thats an anomaly that we cant
figure out.
So I think our view would be if this current what has been a financial crisis turns into a
general U.S. heavy slowdown, both of those entities have to be affected, but they will be positive
outliers in the way theyre affected because of the nature of the portfolios that they have.
The other thing that I think investors have fastened on is that we do have $4 billion of Alt-A
portfolio in the Commerce, which well be inheriting. What were going to try to do is when we
close that transaction is we will make a decision whether to keep that. Its a portfolio that we
can dispose of. Its not like its not a no-bid world out there, and so well make a decision of
whether to dispose of it or not.
And we will lay that decision out transparently for the marketplace. So we will show you, if we
decide to keep some of it, why, what default rate you have to believe or what housing price
scenario you would have to believe, given where the market bids are. But we will mark it to a
price that we could actually exit and have that option.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
And is that where there would be the most risk from a credit perspective? Because a lot of
questions I get is, well, what about the securities portfolio of Commerce Bancorp. Whats in
there? Should I worry? Should I not worry?
5
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I dont think you should worry in the sense that were going to mark it to a price that we can
clear it at, and when we did our models, we were assuming that. I would say that for the rest of
the portfolio, those prices havent changed. And in fact, as you know, theres a fair amount of
negative convexity in that portfolio that we want to get out of, and we did for a lower price than
we thought.
Were probably, I think, unless the world changes, the Alt-A will come in at slightly lower price
than what we originally thought, but I dont want to say the dollar is millions of dollars or
nothing, but the reality is this will be a mark to market. It will affect our capital structure,
but not in a significant way.
And so, we will not hold that portfolio unless were absolutely confident were going to get our
money back. Were going to get more money than it would be to get rid of the portfolio. And as I
say, what well do is lay out for investors so you can see the exact assumptions we use and make up
your own mind whether were crazy or not.
So I dont think that poses any earnings risk going forward. Obviously, I think the earnings risks
come from just the general slowdown, and banks do less well. The whole world slows down, and then
they do that. And we cant outrun a U.S. recession. We are what we are. We cant outrun a
Canadian recession.
But should we be a positive outlier in that? Absolutely, or theres something wrong with our
business model.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Sure, and about it was last summer, I believe in June, that the bank laid out some fairly specific
objectives in terms of profitability of Banknorth and theres been a very fast slowdown in the
economy. Deposit growth or deposit margins are more competitive. Should we still expect the bank
to target those numbers?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I think Mr. Masrani has got that message quite clear. What I said at the end of the fourth
quarter, which I would say today, I cant tell you the numbers youre referring to, as we said,
$700 million next year, $1.2 billion the year after. I think our job is to manage the business to
deliver those, subject to the exchange rate. If we go to $1.10 or $1.20, he cant outrun that.
But within the range, as long as the exchange rate is par or below, I think we have to try to
manage our expenses, expansion of that business, such that we deliver those targets.
Im certainly, as an investor, saying, okay, enough all right. Its a lovely dream. I love your
ability to (inaudible) North American franchise, but I also want you to make money when you do it.
And so, hes got to hit those targets.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
And is the door closed for acquisitions in the U.S. for now with this integration?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Youll never get me to say lock the door, throw away the key. I cant see it, myself. I think
right now whats coming available in the U.S. Its rather interesting to me why there, in fact,
havent been even more acquisitions. Part of it is that most of the acquirers are on their knees,
are out in Asia looking for money. But I think its also because the things that youre acquiring
are only available to you because they have to be recapitalized.
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So you have to have double money. Youve got to be in a position where you can acquire, but you
also have to have a position where you can actually recapitalize what youve just acquired.
And frankly, were not in that position. We dont have a lot of surplus capital. And so, I dont
think unless it was actually a good asset, I dont see us swooping in and buying something that
has to be recapitalized.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
TD Canada Trust has been an unbelievable bottom-line performer for the bank, and with the extra
opening hours, it seems like expense growth is about to rise, and youve pointed that out to the
Street. Visa growth sounds like it may slow, and so what commercial loan losses probably have
nowhere to go but up. Can TD Canada Trust still deliver double-digit growth in that kind of
environment?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I think its going to be difficult. Thats what weve been saying to the market. I think Ive
been saying this for five years. I dont think you can have one of the five banks in the retail
space take so much market share in both revenue and profit every year consistently at such high
levels as weve been doing. Thats why we said, well, you better try to find other areas of growth
because this dream story has to come to an end.
Now, coming to an end, I think our cultural thing that I have to manage internally is I have this
retailer, if you do it widely and include wealth management, thats been growing 15% a year in
profits every year for five years, and they think if they start to grow at 7% to 10% they should
shoot themselves. And I sit there and I used to dream of trying to get up to 7% to 10%.
And so, they would say thats because theyre better managers than me. But I can only dream, they
can actually do. And so, I do think they have to come down. My test is, but are you still
outperforming? And thats really the only fair test to hold them to, and I think thats, again
I dont want to have you all go rush out and sell my stock, but the reality is that this isnt this
complicated what we do. You cant mobilize a company of this size and make it complicated. Thats
our beauty. Its got to be simple, understandable by everybody and consistent.
People say, you gave the same speech today you gave 15 years ago. Right. And if they keep me
another 15 years, Ill still give you the same speech. So our models are pretty simple. And I
think as a result of this meltdown, all of the banks will shift their strategies to look more like
us. And maybe they wont execute them quite as well as us, but they will execute them. Theyre
not stupid. Theyre good businesspeople. And so, thats going to create a more competitive
environment, and I think its going to get harder and harder for us to outperform by that margin.
But we own the convenience space. We own the service space. And so, any measure you want on
service, were number one. Clearly, were number one on convenience. Thats what well be in the
United States. They are the linchpins of all retail banking, and they are hard to knock off
someone that owns that brand, and thats the brand that we own. But I do think we it will slow
down.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
And has the gap changed at all on the service surveys or ?
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Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Not if you look at the Synovate. I mean, because we dont do Synovate or you look at J.D. Power.
Id say what is interesting in both of those is what they are saying is that people everybody is
upping their game. So everyone will come and tell you my service numbers are better than they were
last year, but they actually arent closing the gap. And so, I think it has been amazing to me
I remember when I did the merger and people said, well, Canada Trusts service model will get
destroyed.
I mean, we are operating TDCT at way above the Canada Trust service model, way above the Canada
Trust service model. So the consumers have had this battle, which is what you want in the
competitive space, has been a tremendous battle in terms of actually improving peoples service.
And so, its just a relentless push to get better service, but I think the big advantage we have is
that we couple that with 50% longer hours. And everywhere we go, if you do that on a consistent
basis, not like Ill have four branches open on Sunday someday, but you actually sit there, open at
8:00 six days straight, however you want to express it, the consumer says, I know they will be
there for me, you can put those two together. Thats hard to knock someone out of that position.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay. And in terms of credit, within TD Canada Trust, theres the commercial side and the personal
side. Address perhaps the Visa issues for us, please. And also, on the commercial side, are you
seeing early signs of deterioration, whether its in the actual numbers coming out or perhaps the
size of the watch lists?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
So just to do the second one and then come back, the answer is no. So it remains an anomaly, like,
surely this is happening. So we are not seeing it. Now I would say, and to be fair, we have been
historically extremely conservative lenders. And so, we have, in fact we only recently started
to move our market share in the commercial side up at all. And so, weve had 10 years or 15 years,
TD after 1991 put a pretty tough regime in place on the commercial side. I think that was
economically the wrong decision, made more money. It would have been better for the franchise not
to, but it has you get lucky every once in a while. And it has a benefit that were going in
here with a very, very conservative book. So we may be an anomaly, but were just not seeing it on
the commercial side. I think we will, but we are not seeing it.
On the Visa side, we would say that we are not seeing a general deterioration. So if I take VFC
that we bought, where you might there is a subprime lender, you would have thought lead
indicator. Not seeing it there. And so, were not seeing it in our small business file.
So Visa we still believe is a TD problem, not an industry problem, and reflective of the
introduction, where we introduced our new scoring cards. We probably werent tough enough in
holding them down. So we opened up the door a little too early. Weve shut that door so the pig
is now fully in the snake, and we can just see it moving along here.
And so, we think the new cohort doesnt look like the old cohort, and I think the bigger issue is
will we get this pig through the snake before the inevitable slowdown comes and now we are having
an industry problem rather than just a TD problem? I think that getting the snake through is still
another couple of quarters, but thats all it is.
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André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
So, in other words, the old cohort is still seasoning somewhat. It hasnt crested yet. Okay.
In wholesale, the bank has risen in the lead tables in recent years. The guidance for earnings has
not changed. Is that a function of a more comfortable relative position but less comfort with
markets in general, or is there something else to it?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Yes, I think its fair to say a lot of things came together for us that were positive, and so Im
not sure like we have now $3 billion of capital. We actually have increased the capital from
$2.5 billion to $3 billion in this business, reflecting just the more on-balance sheet stuff, the
re-intermediation thats going on. And so, we keep on saying do I actually fundamentally believe
this is better than a 20% business run in the way we run it? And I dont, to be honest with you.
Im happy with it. Its only 15% of my earnings. I dont have excessive expectations. I want to
run a shareholder-friendly dealer that has a franchise stake, and I think thats very complementary
to the rest of my businesses. But Im not trying to be heroes in that business. So I do think
people keep on pushing it to say its going to be worth more. I say, well, maybe in good times it
will, but I dont see that over the long run it ought to be. But I think as you look at 2008 and
2009, again, you have to believe that a lot of good things happen and there are not going to be as
many of them in this world.
And then the other factor for us is weve had significant security gains over the last five years.
We run a very good strategy on that side. But again, you turn those markets down, both happens,
our head office portfolio loses value, but also the exit of our merchant banks, you dont go out at
such multiples or you dont go out at all. And so, put those together, I think having modest
ambitions for that dealer.
With my luck, well do too well in the first few quarters, and youll call me a liar. But I think
generally Im not sure that we should be moving it up so dramatically.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
And some of the competitors have had issues in the capital markets business. Has that allowed you
to further increase market share, whether measurable by lead tables or numbers of people the bank
hired or employs?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
No, we havent seen it. No, I dont think theyve damaged their fundamental franchises by those.
Obviously, I think theres a management distraction factor, and so its certainly better to be
spending our time worrying about our business than worrying about how we solve problems. But, no,
I think theyre all in fact, if anything, I would say even in this area, where were not famous
for it, I think our competitors are a little irritated by how well weve done in this since were
supposed to be a bunch of retailers who dont know anything about the capital markets.
And so, the fact that weve done so well kind of irritates them. So I think, in fact, youre going
to expect it to be pretty competitive. So I wish it were true, but not true.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Sure. And is there any update on the BCE situation? Your comments remain what they are?
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Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
No. I knew everyone stews and worries about it. I would like to tell you that Im stewing and
worrying, but Im not. As you know, were required for accounting purposes to make sure that we
fairly value it. Weve been doing that, and we dont expect it to have any material impact on our
earnings. And so I was comfortable when we did it in the first place and Im just as comfortable
today.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, Ed, going back down into the U.S. and we didnt talk much about TD Ameritrade, how did you
expect a broker-dealer to behave, or their clients, to behave in a recession? How big a risk is it
to the top line? And the other question is its an open secret that Ameritrade and E*Trade have
talked in the past. Under what conditions would the bank consider supporting a deal there?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Well, in the first one, Im not sure that its so obvious its recession. What drives trading is
more whats happening in the capital markets. And so, particularly Ameritrade, as the number-one
active trader, I think there are some very specific volatility-related factors. NASDAQ
historically has been (inaudible) trades. Clearly, this has been a phenomenal environment. So
its quite staggering whats happening in terms of trading activity in this environment.
So everyone else can be doom and gloom, but if youre in the discount brokerage business, its not
doom and gloom time. And so, I think at the moment this has been a great business. I would say,
and let me just keep emphasizing, what were trying to do with TD Ameritrade is to widen it and to
make a difficult, difficult change to make it from being just a trading platform into also a
long-term asset gatherer.
And the good news for us has been we said we have kind of a couple of years of earnings that are
being paid for the synergies while we do this out. The good news is that we now end up having a
financial debacle thats created volatility thats also giving us great earnings to provide air
cover. But in the long run, the success has got to be to diversify that earnings stream from being
purely transaction driven. And were quite pleased with whats going on in the brand system and
the asset-gathering capability that were starting to see some really positive things on that side.
Without commenting on whether or not we have or have not had discussions with E*Trade, we took a
position all the way along that we didnt like that balance sheet. And so, I think they actually
had a nicely run brokerage operation. I think there obviously are synergies to put them together,
but were not going to change the fundamental business mode of TD Ameritrade to get it into the
asset risk business. We think theres been a huge multiple advantage in having a pure play to say
theyre in the brokerage business. And so, its a very complicated situation in E*Trade, and
whether in that (inaudible) you could ever find a way to have a deal where we didnt take asset
risks is hard to know.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Now, you mentioned earlier TD Canada Trust and TD Banknorth and Commerce becoming a North American
bank. Where does TD Ameritrade fit in that?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Oh, I think TD Ameritrade fits perfectly. We would like in the long run to be offering, just as we
have in Canada TD Waterhouse offering it in the branches. Wed be offering TD Ameritrade in the
branches. We also are talking to them about using, just as we do TD Waterhouse platform here, to
give us economies of scale in all our advice business.
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I mean, one of the things when I came into TD, we were using different platforms in the wealth
management area, and I said, well, weve got the biggest broker in Canada here in TD Waterhouse.
Why are we not using that platform as our advice platform? I think we can do the same thing,
because one of the things we want to do along Commerce, as you know, theres imbalance between
deposits and assets in Commerce. You can either solve that by getting more asset-gathering
capacity, but you can also do it by dis-intermediating the deposits and getting into wealth
management.
So were going to be extending our wealth management capability here in Canada down alongside
Banknorth and Commerce. But in order to have the scale economies, the right way to do that is to
use the TD Ameritrade platform, just as TD Ameritrade does that for the RIA world already in the
United States. So its not like were distorting what their business plan is. They do that
business plan.
And so, well either be selling them directly, as if you want to do it yourself, or you want
someone to hold your hand. But in both cases, theyll be doing that off of that platform. So I
think thats the connection.
We also, as you know, provide banking to TD Ameritrade and I think we will probably look at
opportunities where we can go after their six million customers. Theyre a pretty nice customer
base. And I think with the Commerce deal, theres more of a geographical overlap between their
customer base and our customer base.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Going back to credit risk, youve addressed credit risk in Canadian commercial, retail. Youve
talked about the U.S. What about the corporate side? We dont talk much about corporate credit
risk anymore, with default rates where they are, but what would be the triggers for that to turn,
in your view?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Well, Id like to get through this whole recession and never tighten the bolts. (Inaudible) in TD
Securities. So weve been running if you just take a look at our outstandings, theyre pretty
dramatically low. The quality is very, very good. Were very aggressive buyers of credit
protection, so basically where we want to do deals that we want to do on the investment bank,
franchise side, if you will, but we dont like the credit, then we have the discipline to say you
didnt pay up. Either this deal can pay for the cost of the credit or it cant.
We run a world of economic throughout the bank, people get economic profit, and that theyre
working to maximize the economic profit for the shareholders. That doesnt mean we wont have an
accident in TD Securities. Its hard to believe you cant, but were certainly trying to get
through where we dont have an accident.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, thank you. And what weve been doing with the other participants is at this stage opening it
to questions from the audience. So well do that now. And again, if you could wait for the mike
before asking your question, please.
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QUESTION AND ANSWER
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Youre going to have to help them out here and ask a question here, Jeremy.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Either Im doing too good a job at asking questions, or you avoiding mistakes, but one thing that I
do get the question, and somebody will say, well, I think the U.S. economy is going to be awful.
Therefore, anybody with exposure to the U.S., I dont want to be in.
How would you answer that? Because obviously TD has made a big investment in the U.S. at a time
when the economy is about to slow. How would you answer that question?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I guess were not running in fact, were not running a hedge fund here. Were running a big
operation, a franchise play. And so were not trying to go in and out and so I think you end up
deciding. I look at the Commerce deal, and I think thats really the case in point, and say even
if Id had perfect foresight, would you walk away from the Commerce hoping that at some point you
could duck back in a year later and buy it for 15% less?
Thats not the business Im in. Im in the business of building great franchises, and if I can
make money buying at the price I did, should I then say, no, lets walk away from that, because I
could earn 15% more by trying to get market targets. Thats not the business Im in.
So what I would say to people is my obligation to the shareholders is to tell them what Im in and
not do something Im not in and I shouldnt be in and thats inconsistent with that. And so Im in
the franchise retail businesses and Im in the securities business, the franchise security
business, not roll the dice on long-tail risk business. Thats the business Im in.
That may be in favor, out of favor, may be a good year, a bad year. Im not going to change my
strategy or my timing to try to guess where the markets are going to be on that. And thats what
your job is. You can say as I said to someone else earlier this morning, Im in the Jell-O
manufacturing business. You dont like Jell-O this year? Sell me and get out Im going to keep
doing the same thing. And so I just dont think you can run these franchises.
What makes us so powerful is that weve been doing the same thing every year, and I think people
keep on I know I get accused of being a micromanager. Im actually not a micromanager. I am a
hands-on manager in the sense that I expect everybody who runs my business nobody can be an
operator and not know whats going on in their area. But thats different from being a
micromanager.
In fact, we are incredible delegators, because we spend all of our time making sure that everyone
understands what our strategy is, everyone understands what our value system is, whats the
parameters at which you can make decisions? You cant change those every two or three years
because you woke up with an epiphany that you were doing something dumb here and you ought to be
doing something dumb there. And so, I think that says to you if you can find something that looks
like you, which is what Commerce was, that gets it, there are only two or three banks in all of the
United States that get it, that know how you can steal market share every year from your
competitors.
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You dont sit there and say, well, jeez, the U.S. might be in a recession. You might be in a
recession five years from now, too. So youre not going there youve just got to go in. You
build franchises. Thats what we do for a living.
Unidentified Audience Member
Could you say a little bit about your quantitative sort of assessment framework for acquisitions,
whether thats some kind of target or targets of one kind or another, just how that fits into the
decision-making process?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
You mean like what kind of rates of return we expect?
Unidentified Audience Member
Right, whatever you, as a firm, focus on. What metrics do you focus on and then what the targets
for those metrics are prior to buying?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Well, I would say from an IRR point of view, were probably in the 15% to 17% range. It obviously
depends on the risk, but if youre talking about our conventional business being in the retail
business 15% to 17%, we tend to have an ROIC target that says within two or three years we
definitely want to be north of 8%.
I think our criteria today in terms of U.S. acquisitions will be much higher than 8% for our ROIC,
because weve reached critical mass, so I think when youre number three in New Jersey, number
three in Philadelphia, number five in Manhattan, number five in Massachusetts and number one and
two everywhere else, youre not sitting there saying I cant have critical mass. So I think youre
not going to do quite as hawkish eight stick rates of return.
I was telling someone else, like, when we did the Commerce deal, we built a model for every single
branch, and we modeled out, simulating them for no branch expansion, failure on these parts of the
businesses and stuff like that. So were pretty anal on doing our no one accused us of doing
too few numbers.
In the end of the day, though, what I would say we were having this discussion actually the
other night on one group. They were looking at a small acquisition and they said, we can make a
lot of money on this, and I said, but will it make any difference to us strategically? Why are we
wasting our time?
And so I do think you really want to have the discipline to say is this consistent? I go back I
was thinking about this when I was thinking about this meeting today. When we look at the
structured products area, as it happened, when I looked it, I came to a view that this was just
cruising for bruising, that it was pretty obvious that this wasnt on a sustainable business model
that people were running.
But I can remember saying to people, but, you know what? It probably wont collapse in my
businesss lifetime. So Im going to get out of something that will cost the shareholders money
here even though it probably wont cost for me personally.
13
But the important thing I think for investors to know is even if I didnt think it was
unsustainable, I would have gotten out of it, even if it was making money, because it was not an
appropriate thing for us to do, given what wed promised the shareholders is the business model
were running.
If I was running if I stand up and have a big sign, which some financial institutions do, which
says I take tail risk and Im really good at it, it is an appropriate thing. But in our case it
wasnt. So its important I do think that you want to run in the organization to say does this
fit our strategy, and not let the system drip off and say, doesnt quite but we can still make a
lot of money on it.
And so I think that matters to much as much in an acquisition. You had a question.
Unidentified Audience Member
When you think about growth opportunities in the U.S., right now its predominantly retail and
Ameritrade. So when you think about growth opportunities into the U.S., predominantly retail and
Ameritrade at this point, is there any scope or any appetite to expand the role of the commercial
and investment bank opportunities there?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I think theres a lot of role to expand our wholesale side, alongside Commerce. Jeremy wanted to
(inaudible). So I think one of the things that really excites us, if you think of what were
trying to have in a dealer, and under Bob Dorrance, is a franchise play, whether its the
institutional investor franchise or the issuer.
And so you go down, and clearly with both Commerce and Banknorth I mean, Commerce, you see it
even more. Commerce has unbelievable relationships with a lot of great companies because they just
love how good service they get from them, but they cant do anything with those relationships
because of their capital size or their sophistication. So we certainly have found in Banknorth
doing LCs, foreign exchange, all the stuff thats not interesting to most people but makes a lot of
money in a dealer. That is the kind of businesses that we love. And so we think we can build out
a fairly conventional bank, corporate bank, alongside those two entities there.
I dont see us doing acquisitions to get there, and I think if I have a caution is whats the dead
zone for me? The dead zone in the United States is you go in and then someone says, well, then why
dont we start to build out here this mid-tier wholesale players and you get into this and you get
into that and you start extending yourself out and then all of a sudden youre going head to head
with the top five or six guys and you have no competitive advantage. And so I think you have to
have limited ambitions, just constantly keep limited ambitions in that space. But I think theres
lots of money to be made with a limited ambition strategy off that.
Unidentified Audience Member
I just wondered if you could talk a little bit more about the U.S. retail expansion. Whenever I
talk to anyone in the industry right now, they talk about the level of due diligence that TDs been
through and looking at Commerce Bancorp as being exceptionally high. And then when I talk to your
executives, they say the same thing and your confidence is very high. But if you go back to the
early history of Banknorth, probably in hindsight there were some decisions made about changing its
business model was more piecemeal over time. And then, secondly, the last couple of acquisitions
that Banknorth made probably didnt work out the way that Bill Ryan would have liked them to do.
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What have you learnt this time around from what I would say were mistakes last time around about
both the process and the due diligence and whats giving you greater confidence that this time the
due diligence was better?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Yes, I think, Jeremy, is that gets to the heart of the issue. We made a conscious decision that
turned out definitely had consequences to it, that we wanted to go in in steps at a lower-risk
strategy, so we bought 51% rather than bought 100%. But buying 51% had a lot of implications in
it, which was you werent going to come down and own 100% and run this exactly the way you want to
run it.
You were going to let us run it, with elements of negative control, but not positive control. And
that was the flipside, I think, of that deal. And so it was only really when we decided to
privatize it that we said well, now we are going to change your business model fairly fundamentally
to the business that we like. But I guess obviously you spend a lot of time, if you dont, youre
a fool, going back over it and saying, would I have done it the same way as before? Im not sure
that I would have, actually. I dont think thats just pride preventing me from coming to grips
with issues.
I think we would not have been able to do the Commerce deal without Banknorth. I would never have
had the guts to just go in and buy something, especially something at 21 times P/E without
Banknorth. We would have never done it, and we wouldnt have brought the economies of scale.
What we did get in Banknorth, which is what we wanted, was a very good operating platform, people
who get it, who live profitability. All of that part was correct. They had a model which was an
old model, great commercial bankers, very solid commercial bankers. We like that. Theres been no
asset surprises at Banknorth, but their model is like all the U.S. banks is, tie that to a
deposit-gathering machine that really thats all it does. Its not a retail bank, and so we
probably I think underestimated how far away that deposit-gathering machine was from what we think
of and, secondly, what the consequences of constantly acquiring is, of taking energy away from your
building an organic growth engine.
But the reality is, as I say, we wouldnt have gotten Commerce I couldnt have afforded it
without the economies of scale of putting the two together. And Im not sure I would want to be
taking on the venture of Commerce with none of the operating skills that essentially Banknorth
brought.
And so, all in, I dont take a lot of huge certainly not lessons when I look at the Commerce.
The issues in Commerce are so different. They clearly get retail and so maybe Ill find out three
years from now Ill be answering this question, and Ill say, well, there are another couple of
things that I havent seen, but I dont think theyre the same sort of issues.
André Hardy RBC Capital Markets Analyst
Okay, well, thank you, Ed. Weve gone a little bit over time, but thank you very much for your
time.
15