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Free Writing Prospectus
Filed Pursuant to Rule 433
Reg. Statement No. 333-151932 |
Barclays PLC
Barclays announces Share Issue to raise approximately £4.5 billion.
Analyst & Institutional Investors Presentation
John Varley Group Chief Executive
Chris Lucas Group Finance Director
25th June 2008
John Varley: Thank you for joining us today. We have announced as youve seen this morning a
share issue to raise £4.5bn, enabling us, first, to increase our capital resources and run ratios
at levels ahead of our targets and, second, to pursue opportunities that we are seeing in the
market today to write new business at attractive margins.
At the same time, we have established new and significant relationships with the Qatar Investment
Authority, the chairman of Qatar Holding, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation we are
furthering those we already have with China Development Bank and Temasek, both of whom, through
their participation in our capital-raising, will remain among our largest shareholders and we are
enabling our existing shareholders to participate in the Open Offer at the same price.
We announced last Monday strong trading results for the month of May, building on the performance
through April that we reported in our Interim Management Statement of last month.
And lastly, we have announced today our intention to maintain an interim dividend payable in cash
at the same rate as the 2007 interim dividend, which youll remember was 11.5p.
Chris will give you, in a few moments, more detail about the capital issue and about the sequence
of events from here.
But before he does, I want to say a few words about the strategic context of the capital raising,
about its rationale, and about our year-to-date financial performance.
As you know, our strategy is: to drive higher growth, through time, by diversifying our business
into markets and segments that are growing rapidly.
That strategy has served us well, and its delivered substantial and positive changes in both the
mix, and the absolute level, of profits at Barclays over recent years.
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The performance of our business model during the period of market turbulence has reinforced our
confidence in the strategy.
Risk management in all banks has been stress-tested over the last twelve months.
I am pleased at how Barclays has performed in that test.
We have been able to absorb the impact of the market disruption through the income that we have
generated, and through tight cost management.
So the strength of the individual businesses that we have built, and the diversification of
earnings they provide when managed together, have enabled us to perform strongly, notwithstanding
the headwinds.
The market turbulence has, of course, affected bank balance sheets all around the world, including
ours.
That is why we have said that, without changing our target capital ratios, we intend to direct
part of the new capital we are raising today at enabling us to run actual ratios ahead of target,
in any event while these conditions last.
The market turbulence has also created unusual competitive opportunities.
We see a market in which the ability or determination of some participants to compete has changed.
You can see from our financial performance in 2008, which I will talk about further in a moment,
that we are seeing high activity levels at attractive margins across many markets.
We are seeing these opportunities in the UK and internationally; and in both GRCB and IBIM.
What specific examples can I give you?
In GRCB, we are busy.
We are integrating the Goldfish credit card acquisition that we made earlier this year.
We have announced as you know the acquisition of Expobank in Russia, and the launch of a new
business in Pakistan. We see big opportunities for growth in both of those markets.
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We have opened 600 branches and distribution points so far this year (including 300 in Africa, 120
in India, 75 in Iberia, 45 in Italy).
And by the end of the year, we plan to open at least 300 more.
Ill show you just one business specific slide, which illustrates how were capturing good
economic opportunities whilst managing risk tightly.
The slide relates to our UK residential mortgage business.
As you can see, we are achieving a substantially higher market share.
We have not had to moderate our risk stance to achieve this: the loan to value ratio on our book
of UK mortgages remains at just over 30%, and the margins are attractive.
Our view of the economic outlook in the various markets where we do business is realistic, and
because of this the risk profile in UK mortgages and in our other major books of assets in GRCB is
conservative.
In IBIM, volumes in Barclays Capital are up significantly, May year to date versus the prior year
period.
Income in many of our capital markets businesses (good examples would be Fixed Income Rates, FX,
Emerging Markets, Commodities and Prime Services) income is well ahead of the same period last
year.
Income levels are benefiting from increased volatility and widening spreads in many asset classes.
As you have seen, we have been hiring advisory teams selectively, including in emerging markets
and healthcare, to complement the existing financing and risk management capability that we
already have in Barclays Capital.
In BGI, we have launched new iShares products this year we now have over 330 exchange traded
funds, and we are continuing the build-out of Barclays Wealth.
What I conclude from this is that the capital which we will be directing at new business growth
can be put to work quickly and effectively.
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In GRCB, we will deepen our presence in existing markets in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and
mainland Europe; and we will accelerate growth in new markets such as Russia and Pakistan.
In IBIM we will pursue the further development of our commodities, equities and iShare asset
classes, and expand the coverage of our risk management and financing businesses, particularly in
the United States and Asia.
As we look forward, we will explore business cooperation opportunities with Sumitomo Mitsui
Banking Corporation under the agreement signed today.
SMBC is one of the worlds largest commercial banks and our agreement with them creates the
opportunity for extensive collaboration in areas where we have complementary expertise.
The early focus of both organisations will be directed at developing business in Wealth Management
and Private Banking.
You will recall that we signed a memorandum of understanding with CDB last year, at the time of
their initial investment in Barclays.
Were starting to see the fruits of that. Some examples for you:
We have launched a strategic alliance in commodities, through which we are providing customised
risk management solutions to CDBs clients.
Weve been working closely together in the area of credit derivatives linked to CDBs loan book.
We have closed the first transaction and are working on a pipeline of similar opportunities, which
is large.
And we have been jointly mandated to arrange a term loan for a power plant development in
Indonesia.
Let me talk to you now about current trading.
This is a time for micro managing financial performance.
We hope, and intend, that the profits we generate will drive valuation.
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We have shown you before how our portfolio of businesses enables us to turn earnings into free
cashflow.
And doing that sustains dividends, facilitates organic growth, supports capital ratios, and
ultimately creates strategic choice.
You saw in our recent Interim Management Statement the continuing benefit of earnings
diversification.
In the month of May, we recorded Group profit well ahead of the monthly run-rate of 2007.
Our GRCB businesses continued to invest strongly for the future, whilst also reporting strong
growth in profits relative to last year.
And in spite of the continued market turbulence, profits in May in IBIM were in line with the same
month of 2007, which was in the midst of the strongest half in our history.
As we closed the books on the profits of Barclays Capital May year to date, we undertook a further
careful analysis of the valuations of our credit market exposures.
Those marks have been extensively revisited as we have prepared the prospectus which we will
release today and as the sponsors to that prospectus, and the core investors in the equity
issuance, have undertaken their due diligence.
In the case of the sponsors to the issue, the level of disclosure is consistent with what we share
with our regulators and the rating agencies. That information is more extensive, more granular
and more contemporary than the information contained in the prospectus.
The context here is important because the sponsors draw no distinction between their legal
obligation when they put their name to a prospectus as sponsor, as in this case, and their legal
obligation had they acted as underwriter.
So our valuations have been subjected to thorough internal and external challenge.
In addition to which they are being validated by disposals at levels consistent with our marks.
We will, of course, report to you further on this subject at our interim results in August.
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I will close by talking about the structure of todays issue.
Over the years, we have tried to be disciplined about capital issuance, and thoughtful about the
interests of existing shareholders.
That approach has governed the choices we have made about todays announcement.
First, the capital we are raising has certainty of delivery by 22nd July.
Second, we secure the new capital at a set price.
Third, we are giving existing shareholders the ability to participate in the open offer on equal
terms.
Fourth, should existing shareholders not exercise their right to participate in the issue through
clawback, we secure as shareholders a number of investors who are natural long-term holders of our
stock.
Fifth, we have created the opportunity for significant investment by the Qatar Investment
Authority, the Chairman of Qatar Holding and his family, and SMBC, all of whom we are pleased to
welcome to our share register.
Sixth, in the case of SMBC, we have agreed to explore opportunities for business cooperation that
will generate incremental income for both parties.
And lastly, we are furthering our relationships, through the capital raising, with both CDB and
Temasek.
So Im going to hand over to Chris now, who will give you more detail about the offer structure
and about the timetable.
Chris Lucas: Thank you John and good morning.
Weve announced this morning that were raising £4.5 billion by issuing new ordinary shares,
increasing our ordinary share capital by 24%.
As youve heard from John, these are placed with certainty of execution at an all in discount to
yesterdays closing share price of 8.8%.
The share issue has two components:
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The first is a firm placing of £500 million, equivalent to 2.6% of our existing ordinary share
capital which is being placed with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation at a 4.7% discount.
The second component is a 3 for 14 placing and open offer under which existing shareholders
subscribe for new shares on a fully pre-emptive basis at a 9.3% discount.
Should any shareholder not wish to subscribe to the placing and open offer, the shares will be
placed at the same price with the Qatar Investment Authority, the Chairman of Qatar Holding, China
Development Bank, Temasek, and a number of leading institutional and other investors.
This slide shows you the commitments these investors have made to subscribe for shares, together
with their potential maximum holdings.
Clearly this will vary, depending on the extent of participation by other current shareholders.
In terms of capital management, our policy is unchanged.
We take a view on capital ratios based on the economic capital we deem necessary for the business,
and our capital ratio targets remain 7.25% for Tier One and 5.25% for Equity Tier One.
On a pro forma basis, as at the end of 2007, this share issue would have resulted in a Tier One
ratio of 8.8% and an equity tier one ratio of 6.3%, which is up from an actual ratio of 5.1% and
clearly well ahead of our targets.
As youve heard, our intention is to run capital ratios ahead of our targets, as well as using the
capital for growth.
When I look at the move in the tier 1 equity ratio from 5.1% to a pro forma 6.3%, I see just over
half of the movement being retained and contributing to ratios going forward, and the rest being
deployed in the businesses.
The level of intended capital ratios is informed by our view on economic profit.
We published our latest 4 year economic profit goals in February this year, those goals remain the
same despite our increased capital base, though clearly the extra equity increases the cost of
capital in the Economic Profit calculation by almost £500m.
Our dividend policy also remains unchanged. As you know, we aim for dividends to grow in line
with the rate of underlying earnings growth over time and to be twice covered by earnings.
The new shares weve announced this morning will rank for the interim dividend which we intend to
maintain at the 2007 level of 11.5 pence per share.
Going forward, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, we intend to maintain dividends at the
level per share that we declared for 2007 until such time as they are more than twice covered by
earnings.
In terms of the time table:
The record date for ordinary shareholders entitlement to subscribe in the open offer was the
close of business yesterday
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and the existing shares will be marked ex with effect from the beginning of trading tomorrow.
The prospectus that accompanies this announcement will be published later today.
The latest time for receipt of payments under the open offer will be 11 a.m. on the
17th July
and the new shares will trade from the 22nd July.
Were pleased that this will be completed within the next few weeks, well before our interim
results announcement in August.
So back to John now to wrap up and take questions.
John Varley: Between now and our interim results in early August, we will be on the road
seeing shareholders and responding to your questions, and we look forward to those conversations.
Meanwhile, let me finish with the summary slide, which describes what we have been presenting to
you this morning.
Questions and Answers
Ian Gordon: Morning. Its Ian Gordon from Exane BNP Paribas. Two questions, please. Firstly, I
guess youve made a very clear case for why this arrangement is in Barclays interests. In essence
you seem to have achieved a very cheap form of underwriting. I wondered if you could just provide
a little bit more colour of how your potential investors see this arrangement, because clearly, if
things turn out as expected, theyre going to be picking up relatively small amounts of shares, if
any, in the new Barclays. So should I think of it purely in terms of this being their entry region
to the types of collaborative agreements you outlined in your presentation? And then, secondly, I
think Chris has given us a pretty clear steer on the unofficial target capital youre working to
later this year, and I guess prior to hearing those comments, I think consensus estimates were
leading to a year end 08 equity tier one of circa 6%, based on the level of growth the markets
already pricing in. Now youve reminded us of many of the diverse growth opportunities youre
currently pursuing, should I be thinking in terms of an equity tier one starting with a five for
year end, given your increased willingness to pursue those opportunities?
John Varley Thank you very much. Ill ask Chris to take the second question. But let me try and
answer your first. As I said in my remarks, we were very clear about what structure we wanted to
put in place. We wanted to make sure that existing shareholders had the opportunity to participate
extensively, and we also wanted to make sure that to the extent that they choose not to, then we
have anchor investors in place whom we would be pleased to have on the share register, and to whom
we could look as long term holders of the stock. Thats the simple, strategic framework of the
structure. To your point, I think what we see is two things. We see very significant subscription
for the conditional, from a number of shareholders including potentially new shareholders, and I
think that is a demonstration of their conviction about what were doing. They wouldnt do that in
the knowledge that they might be taking out stock if they felt that they had some issues with our
strategy or the issues
of execution. So we are pleased at the prospect of that support. But were also pleased, if you
look at the overall participation in the conditional, its quite widely dispersed. Some
potentially new holders, who we would categorise as strategic anchor holders, some existing
shareholders, from the institutional register that we currently have. So I think the right way of
looking at this is to say, you wouldnt have Qatar Investment Authority or you wouldnt have
Temasek, or
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you wouldnt have CDD expressing the participation that they are doing in the
conditional, unless they had a strong sense of conviction. But they are realists. They understand
that if the claw back is extensively operated, then the amount of their putative exposure, which
Chris has described on that slide, would come back quite a lot.
Chris Lucas Thank you. I think in terms of capital ratios its hard to give you much more guidance
than weve done, and Ill just try and put it together for you. We said, at the interim management
statement, that we expected tier one, an equity tier one, to be slightly below where we were at the
end of the year, and that end of the year point was 7.6, and 5.1%. Were showing you on the pro
forma that the 5.1 becomes 6.3, and Ive tried to give you some flavour as to how much of that
increase or movement do I see as being part of strength in the capital ratios versus available for
investment in the business? The precise place that we end up at the end of the year, as you know,
will be based on a number of different inputs, one of which will be the speed with which we invest
in new business opportunities, but I think the guidance Ive given you gives you a flavour of how I
see the ratios developing, and how we intend to use the capital.
JSV There was one part of your question that I didnt answer, and I should have done, which was on
the collaboration. You asked about that, and Ill ask Bob to comment in just a moment, but the
context here is that you saw us last year with CDB and Temasek, create share ownership
opportunities, with relationships that weve had for a long time. It was no coincidence, put it
that way, it was no coincidence that CDB and Temasek came in, because they are organisations whom
we respect, and whom weve had a long-standing relationship. And its exactly that pattern that is
at work again today, with SMBC, with the Qataris; these are relationships that we know well, where
we have worked together for a long time, and where we see interesting commercial opportunities
developing from the opportunity to introduce them to the register. Bob, do you want to comment?
Bob Diamond Sure. As John had mentioned, the genesis of what ended up with the Sumitomo foreign
placement was really discussions around business cooperation, business partnership, strategic
partnership, that had been going on for most of the last year, and frankly its very exciting for
both sides. To give you a couple of examples, for Barclays, it gives us access to more retail and
middle market flows, through Barclays Capital and BGI that we wouldnt necessarily be able to get
to in Japan. So our project strength and their distribution. Equally, Sumitomo doesnt want to
build a big investment banking presence around the world, but they want access to an origination
platform like Barclays Capital, so were able to share with them the benefits of our origination
platform, in a much broader way. So that partnership is something that both sides were very
serious about, and has been discussed for quite a while.
With the Qataris, again, a very long standing relationship, throughout the Barclays group. Roger
Jenkins, who chairs our Investment Banking and Investment Management businesses in the Middle East
has really worked hard at developing that relationship, and as part of this share placement,
theyre going to advise us and help work with us on our whole business strategy and business focus
in the Middle East, so another very, very positive development. But as John had said, both of
these are really born; the genesis is the business partnership.
JSV Next question. There we are. Morning, Simon.
Simon Samuels: Morning, John. Simon Samuels from Citi Group. A couple of questions if I can,
actually? First of all, just to sort of slightly follow on, I suppose, from the last one, I
appreciate you cant tell us what the end 08 tier one equity ratio might look like, but I assume
youve got a pretty good sense for the June 07, oh, sorry, the June 08 number, and I know [laughs].
Even weve got the June 07. [Laughter]. And I know a little bit below the 5.1 is what you
previously...can you just give us
a bit more on that? I mean, what is, a little bit? I mean, is that 0.2, 0.3 below? I mean, is
[overtalking].
JSV Youre wanting a forecast, Simon?
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SS Yeah, no, no. Sorry, and I think theres a serious point there, which is, youre three days, or
four days away from the period end, and youre just raising a load of capital, so it seems a pretty
basic question to say, what is your current capital ratio?
JSV Well, remember that Chris did give an update on that at the IMS, and what we will do is were
happy to remind the room of what he said at that time.
CL Which was that its slightly below, and [overtalking].
SS What is slightly below?
CL Simon, youll have to apply, we use a lexicon, and a little bit is what I mean by slightly.
SS So there we are. As clear as crystal. Remember; let me try and give you one source. Remember
that we have talked about the tier one ratio, the equity tier one ratio being slightly below
target. I mean, thats...so that might be context for you.
SS Okay, thank you.
JSV You had a second question, Simon?
SS Yes, I do. We have a universe of 70 banks in Europe that we analyse, and after your capital
raising, you will be, on all the metrics we look at, in the bottom ten. Thats the equity tier
one, your new equity to tier one, your tangible equity to asset and also your US style leverage
ratio, even adjusting for the differences in accounting with the US and IFRS accounting rules. And
so I guess my question, really, which I think a lot of people kind of feel is, is this enough? So,
have you raised enough? And, you know, maybe you can just talk us through the reasons why you feel
comfortable positioning yourself at very much the weakest of the European industry.
JSV Simon, what I would say, is, just to start my answer, repeating a point that Chris raised, that
we derive our capital ratios from a view of the economic capital that we require to run the
business, and weve been running Barclays on an economic capital model for a long time. And during
that period, as you know, its a period of over ten years, now, sometimes weve operated above
target, sometimes weve operated below target, but that period of operation, the empirical evidence
of the last years, gives us confidence in our ability to manage ratios relative to target, and
youve seen plenty of history of that, because youve studied Barclays for a very long time. What
our view is that when you think about capital, you should have the capital you want to run the
business, but you shouldnt have more than that. And its by no means clear to me that there is
some eternal truth in the 6% now being axiomatically the right ratio as an equity ratio, or six and
a quarter, or six and a half. If you ask us, and I think you can see it for yourself, does
Barclays, in the first part of 2008, before the capital raising, does Barclays look like a bank
that is behaving in a constrained way? I mean, Ive talked to you about some of the things that
weve been doing in the first part of this year. We are expanding the businesses briskly. Whether
thats the businesses run by Fritz, or whether its the businesses run by Bob, there is a lot of
activity, and thats before the capital raising. And what I would say to you is the stress tests
that weve had in capital management and in risk management over the course of the last 12 months,
gives us confidence that we can manage to the ratios that weve talked about, and those ratios are
going to be buttressed in part by the capital raising that were undertaking today. So I think
that today is perhaps the wrong time, from a point of view of market analysis, to form an eternal
view as to what is the right number. Are we comfortable with running the ratios that we will run,
as a result of this capital
raising? As we look out into the future, very. And part of that is comfort drawn of the knowledge
the competitive landscape in the market has shifted, and we can put some of the capital that were
raising to work now.
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SS Apologies. Just for a third question, and then I promise Ill shut up. Is, you know, weve had
obviously, B equity issues from other UK banks, and each case they have cited a step change in the
economic environment that things have materially changed in the last three or four months, and
obviously theres a whole load of external data points to justify that as well. I guess the
question really is whether you think youve raised capital today to a sufficiently high level to
effectively pay for a potential UK recession? Or do you think youll be coming back again in six
or 12 months time if the economic environment is different from what youre currently projecting?
JSV I mean, of course weve taken our assessment of the economic outlook in the various countries
where we do business. Weve taken that into our calculus for determining what capital we want to
have in the period ahead, and another way of looking at that, Simon, is, well, there are two things
Id say. The first is, its important for us to be able to say of our businesses, where we do
business, that were not just slaves to volume. Because in an environment where youve got
economic deceleration, all the more so in an environment where you have a recession, you would
expect some of your volumes to fall. I mean, we understand that well. But weve tried to put
ourselves into a position where were not slaves to volume, and that was one of the reasons why I
put up on the screen the UK residential mortgage situation, because, I mean, we all know it in this
room; volumes in the market have fallen significantly over the course of the last months, and yet,
you know, is our business today more profitable than it was last year? Significantly. Weve got
much greater market share, at much better margin, and weve not shifted the risk stance. And that
would be a parochial example to the United Kingdom, but again, our approach is to look at this more
broadly. Its, again, no coincidence, from the point of view of risk management, that we have
diversified the business space in the way that we have over the years, by product and by geography,
to ensure that were not excessively vulnerable to a particular downturn in volumes in a particular
market. So, you know, what I would say is, we cant, of course, avoid the impact of economic
slowdown all around the world. Im not suggesting that for one moment, but the key question is,
are you in a position to outperform, because of where you enter that outturn in terms of your risk
stance? And again, I made some comments in my remarks about our having adopted very consciously, a
conservative risk stance to ensure that were appropriately placed as markets and economies
decelerate.
Yes. Just to...thats right. Yeah? Peter Toeman, good morning. And Im going to come to the
telephone, a telephone question in just a moment, promise. Peter?
Peter Toeman Could I just ask you about monoline exposure? Because youve given the indication
that your shareholders are getting a better update, or your new shareholders will get a better
update, on the credit market exposures and write downs than we humble analysts will, but in the
case of the monolines, as far as I understand it, youve taken no credit valuation adjustments
against your exposures on the basis that no assets are in default. Since we had the trading update
on 23rd May, the CDS swaps Credit Default Swaps, for various monolines have more than
doubled, and I wondered how that might have changed your thinking on the necessary level of write
downs there?
JSV Yes. I will ask Bob to comment, and I would also like Chris to comment on your, on the second
part of what you said. But I just want to address something you said at the beginning, which is
that there is differentiated disclosure. The differentiated disclosure relates to the sponsors.
There is no differentiated disclosure relating to the subscribers for the equity. Bob, first of
all, and then Chris.
RED Well, monolines, in particular, you know, we mark, to market our exposures, taking into
consideration the rating of our counter parties. So, that is all in our numbers. I think in terms
of the recent downgrades, we also use internal models, that if we feel the external rating is too
high, we use internal ratings that are lower. So, you know, I think your starting position is
wrong in terms of how we look at the exposure.
JSV Chris.
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CL I think Id just add to that that, as Bob says, we have taken credit valuation adjustments into
our, into our marks, and I think the thing I come back to is I look at the underlying assets that
are wrapped by the monolines and in particular, the composition of those assets. Theres less than
10% of those assets are US residential mortgage backs, and therefore the significant proportion of
what we have CLOs are performing much better than many of the asset classes that are wrapped in
other structures. I think its a good illustration, Peter, of our point about risk not being
generic; the nature of exposure to monolines is quite variable across the market.
JSV Now Im going to take the telephone question next, just to show that were being even handed.
OP Ive got a question from the line of John-Paul Crutchley from Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
JSV Hello, JP.
John-Paul Crutchley Oh, good morning, John. I have a question actually on the dividend outlook,
where I think youve been fairly explicit in terms of obviously maintaining the dividend for now,
and looking to maintain it at that sort of level until you get back to twice cover. Given that
there is the likelyhood to be some form of cyclical downturn, where is your kind of pain threshold
in terms of dividend cover, and at what point do you think the board would actually have to take a
more critical eye about whether that dividend could be maintained?
JSV Well, weve obviously thought carefully about the outlook and about the impact of the capital
raising before making the statement that weve made. Weve made a clear commitment this morning,
which relates to the interim, and weve also given guidance saying in the absence of unforeseen
events, this is what we expect to do. And we take that sort of statement very seriously so you
should read into it a point of view about how were performing and about our outlook and
expectation. At times like this, I think it is important to compress the number of variables, JP.
You know, I recognise that for shareholders there are a lot of things that are variable and I think
to have some anchor points in our strategic policy and in our financial policy is very important
and were trying to give an anchor point around dividend expectation.
JPC I understand that. I guess what Im just trying to feel for is that I mean, clearly its a
very uncertain world and I think its very admirable youve made the statement you have against the
cut dividends weve seen elsewhere in the sector. And Im just trying to get a feel for, is there
a point at which the board would, in terms of what you see and what may be on the scene at any one
time, but is there a point at which you would not like to see dividend cover below?
JSV Well, I unfortunately, all I can do is repeat the policy that weve set out. We, again, in the
pursuit of giving as much clarity as we reasonably could, about two years ago, we said this is what
shareholders can expect through time from our dividend policy and we have followed that in quite
variable conditions since that time. And you could think of the last 12 months as another stress
test, a stress test of dividend policy and our adhesion to it. And I think we have been faithful
to it. So of course we cant predict the future any better than you can, but what weve tried to
do is to say as we track forward, scroll forward and think about the future, this is our
expectation and this is the reasonable expectation that shareholders should have of us.
JPC Thank you very much, John.
JSV Question here. Hello, Michael.
Michael Helsby Hi. Its Michael Helsby from Morgan Stanley. Just a couple of questions. Firstly,
at the IMS statement you were happy to comment on that you were happy with the current level of
consensus of £6.3 billion at pre-tax. It doesnt feel like it in terms of the back end of May and
what weve seen in June but are you still happy with that level of consensus? And Ive got just a
follow on question on marks.
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JSV I think weve observed and you will have observed that consensus has dropped for the year down
to about £5.9bn, that sort of number, which reflects, I think greater uncertainty in the second
half of the year particularly. And I think we look at the very broad dispersion of inputs into
that number, and if you take the median recognising a dispersion you get back to about £6.2m. So,
I think when we look at the statements weve made, were looking in that sort of range of
consensus, and were very conscious that we dont want to make a statement to update it.
JSV And you had a second question, Michael.
MH Yes. It just follows on from John-Pauls question on the dividend and its quite interesting
that youve not changed your economic profit target goal despite the extra capital cost. You
mention unforeseen events, John. I was just wondering if you could, you know, would a recession
fall into an unforeseen event or a turn in the economic cycle? Because clearly I think the market
is working on that as not unforeseen. And, you know, given that you are on sort of still sticking
to your economic profit target, when do you think youre going to be back above the two times
cover?
JSV Well, Michael, its absolutely right that you should press us for forecasts and its absolutely
right that we should push back. So, I dont think that I can add much constructively to what Chris
and I have already said. Again, we had to confront the issue, given that we have recently
announced cumulative economic profit goals for the four year period, beginning in 2008, confront
the issue as to whether we should make an adjustment to those goals to take account of the fact
that we were raising capital. I think its good discipline for Barclays, not to make that
adjustment. And I think its a good discipline for Barclays to operate on an economic profit
basis. That will be tough. Its at the beginning of the four-year period; we derive some comfort
from that. We recognise were going to have to work very hard to ensure that we hit the targets,
but we take that seriously as you know, and if you look at our performance over the previous four
year period we actually outperformed our targets. Now, its going to be tougher this time round,
Im not in denial about that. But we had the opportunity of making an adjustment and I think that
would have been flaky. We formed the view that it would have been flaky. Weve left those goals
in place and we take them seriously. I recognise the impact of the capital charge and will be
showing how economic profit develops with and without that.
JSV Yes. Microphone coming. And then well go to Robert straight afterwards. Yes?
Leigh Goodwin Good morning, its Leigh Goodwin from Fox Pitt Kelton. Id just like to follow up a
couple of questions please on capital and then one on inorganic opportunities. And just on
capital, really following up Simons questions earlier, youre telling us and I understand this
perfectly that your capital targets are guided by your view on economic capital requirements, so if
you turn that round, could you tell us maybe how your view of economic capital is changing? And I
would have thought that the sort of volatility weve seen, the sort of level of unexpected losses
that weve seen over the last year may have caused you to want to increase the amount of economic
capital requirement that you see within the businesses. So, thats my first question on capital
and related to that...
JSV Can we just handle that one first of all, and then come to your second one? Let me make a
general comment and then Ill ask Chris to comment. Remember that assuredly youve got as a result
of increased volatility; you have got a driver of increased economic capital consumption, yes. But
thats not the only part of the equation because as I was saying in my remarks earlier, the margin
environment, the spread environment and the volatility environment has all improved quite
significantly. And so its right for us to take into account the complete economic equation rather
than looking at a particular driver of increased capital consumption. So, what were trying to do
is, were
trying to achieve balance. In the ordinary course of events, would you expect the events of the
last 12 months, and would you expect as a consequence of Barclays growth over the course of the
last 12 months, for us to be consuming more capital through time? Absolutely you would, and who
would deny that. But I think its important to get the right sense of perspective. There are
quite a lot of variables that you have to take into account in
arriving at an economic
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capital view
and deriving your capital ratio from that. And youll see from the information we disclosed at the
end of the year that our economic capital requirements on an average basis was going up and that
the spot point at the end of the year was showing an increase over the average. Thats entirely
what you would expect in the environment for the very same reasons that youve set out. What we
also see because the economic capital requirement gives us a number that translates across to the
tier one ratio is that were seeing our economic capital requirements growing slightly faster than
our regulatory capital requirements, and thats precisely what led us to the view that we should be
above our targets rather than at targets and that was the informing piece of data.
RED John, can I make a point?
JSV Do, Bob.
RED This is a little general, but kind of to set context, theres a tendency and there has been a
tendency which surprises all of us to make a virtue out of massive losses and then raising a lot of
equity. And you know, the performance of Barclays from a PBT and economic profit point of view and
the performance of J P Morgan, hasnt been driven by the capital ratios alone. Its management,
its diversity of earnings and theres such a focus here that theres almost been a virtue that we
would be better off, you know, announcing a great big loss and doing a rights issue and then having
a lot of equity. That doesnt give me confidence in that institution going forward for how theyre
going to deliver. So, when we say were comfortable with our capital ratios we are but thats not
the only ingredient that goes into the performance.
JSV And a question behind.
LG Sorry, can I just follow up? Thats very helpful. Can I just ask the same question on capital,
and that is to what extent youve considered an increase in the denominator of the ratio driven by
changing regulatory capital requirements in relation to off balance sheet contingent risks,
liquidity risks, trading books and so on?
JSV Well, that gets factored into our economic capital calculations. It also gets factored into
the regulatory capital requirements and that is taken account as we look forward in terms of the
growth of RWAs.
LG Okay. And finally, just a question on inorganic opportunities. I know that your strategy Im
sure is unchanged but in terms of the differentiated disclosures that youve provided, could you
say whether you have disclosed any opportunities that youre seeking right now?
JSV Well, you know how dull we are on this subject. We say and we believe it that our default
position, our day job is to manage the portfolio businesses that we have. We dont forswear M&A
activity, weve done a bit of M&A activity in Frits business during the course of this year, and
we like what weve bought. So, we would never take a strategic option off the table, it doesnt
make any sense to do that, but you know how we look at these things. We look at them as the
servant of strategy, not the driver of strategy. You know that were tough in terms of the
economics that we apply, and our natural line of advance is organic development of the portfolio
and thats what youre seeing in front of you today.
JSV Question behind, and then Im going to go to the next telephone question.
Robert Law Robert Law. Can I explore three areas please? And firstly, could I just invite you to
be a little less dull on the last question?
JSV Be a little less dull?
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RL Its an uncertain environment for acquisitions and could you comment on how youd think about
acquisitions at this point, and you have specifically said that up to half of the capital is for
growth, so do you have, obviously you dont have firm plans otherwise youd have announced them,
but do you have developed ideas as to acquisitions?
JSV Im going to remain dull, but Ill try and just give you a little bit more colour around it,
Robert. I do think that, as a result of the change in the competitive landscape that I referred to
a moment ago, we will see, we the industry, will see more inorganic activity over the course of the
next couple of years than theres been over the last couple. I think that is very likely. And of
course, you know, what we should, we should have our eyes open. And we do have our eyes open. It
was small, but it was interesting. The Goldfish credit card acquisition is a deal that we would
not have got, most particularly not have got at that price, 12 months ago. It was a perfect fit
with what Barclaycard is doing here in the United Kingdom, the timing was ideal for us because
weve got the capacity to absorb that additional business, and the price was right. And again, I
would speculate that in any event, the contention for Expo Bank may have been much tougher 12
months ago. So its right that we should be in a position where we can take advantage of these
opportunities, because there will be some unusual opportunities. But I dont want you to think
that were creating some war chest here and sitting there, licking our lips, waiting for some great
M&A opportunity. I mean, you know that were disciplined. We had the big test last year. We had
the big test of our discipline last year, and I hope you feel, and our shareholders feel, that we
passed that test, because we didnt lose sight of the economic reality of the day. And thats the
way that we look at things. Its still a pretty dull reply, frankly, but Ive tried.
RL Can I move onto the marks, please, and weve talked about the sponsors having access to
additional information. Can you comment on what youre getting from your accountants in terms of
the valuation of your assets compared with other groups, that they also audit, and the valuation
that other groups are taking towards the same assets?
CL Yes. And of course, when we look at not only the prospectus that weve issued, but the IMS we
issued and when we look at the Interim Trading Statement that is reviewed very carefully by our
auditors, as youd expect, they seem to be with us pretty much the year around at the moment,
looking at this. And the sort of guidance they give to us, both as an executive team and the
board, gives us some comfort in terms of where we are relative to other organisations that they
see. Now, clearly, you wouldnt expect me to describe which organisations theyre talking about,
but we do get comfort from the work they do, over and above everything else that we do ourselves.
JSV Robert, theres another really important source of assurance, of course, which is how we
dispose of positions relative to marks, and I might just ask Bob to talk about the leverage loan
situation, because its a very good example, I think, of why we have the confidence that we do in
the marks.
RED In general, there is a lot of noise here, so Im glad to take the question. Some of the noise
emanates from the group sitting right out here, some of it emanates from competitors who dont want
to believe that our performance has been better. But you know, as both John and Chris said, we
have auditors, we have a prospectus out, and we have a track record of delivering. And our marks
shouldnt be an issue. I think leverage finance is probably the poster child of it. We took
roughly £70 million in provisions last year. We didnt change our accounting from the way we had
done the accounting for the decade that Ive been here. What I said last July, when we talked
about this, is that we were not uncomfortable with our risk, that we hadnt taken big provisions in
Europe where we were number one for a decade. I talked about the Alltel position in the US, I
talked about the Boots position in the UK, we talked about the strength of the deals. And I said,
very specifically, we were offered to be a
lead manager on Clear Channel. We said no. If we had Clear Channel, we would be taking a lot more
provisions. We were offered to be a lead manager on EMI. We said no thank you. Wed be taking a
lot more provisions if we had been a lead manager on EMI. I could go through two or three other
deals where we were offered those opportunities. And with Alltel, with the Verizon deal that
were getting out at par, when the other three banks, Citi, RBS and one other were willing to get
out at 90, because of the capital issues, and because they needed to get
15
their positions down, we
refused. Theres no reason to get out at 90; were getting out at par and we have a write back to
our position. A third of our risk in leverage finance is now out of our position. Were out at
par, and thats a write back to our position in P&L. So we are delivering on what we said in
leverage finance, and theres been a lot of noise on it out there, and weve been consistent from
the beginning. We know our exposures, were not looking to dump them in the market at distressed
levels; these are clients weve worked with for a long time, and we think weve avoided a lot of
the deals that people are writing down.
CL Robert, you had one last question, did you?
RL Yes, one last one. It relates to the capital and the dividend. Youre raising £4.5 billion
here and the dividend, I think, will cost you, in a full year now, something like £2.7 billion.
And if I relate this to earning, and I think your tangible book is about 260, so to have a twice
dividend cover, youve got to have earnings of, obviously, something like 70p, which is about a 27%
ROE, if my arithmetic is correct, which takes me back to the kind of returns that banks were
earning at the top of the last cycle with higher leverage than theyre going to have now. And I
just wondered whether you think that that kind of profitability is really going to be achievable in
the future. And thats what Im trying to relate, the indication youve given of a stable
dividend.
JSV Robert, Ill make a general comment and then ask Chris to add. Last year, 2007, was, I think,
a good test of this. We paid more dividends in 2007 than we had ever paid in any year in our
history. We had greater growth in our balance sheet in terms of weighted risk assets than we had
had in any year of our history, last year. Weighted risk assets grew by about £50 billion last
year. And yet we still managed to ratios that were in touch with targets; in the case of Tier One,
ahead of target; in the case of Equity Tier One, slightly behind target. That was a good test.
And if we look at our, the application of our policy over the years, during the time weve been
growing the business quite briskly, again, we derive confidence from the fact that weve been able
to manage. Now, we acknowledge, of course, that were putting some pressure on ourselves as a
result of making the commitment that we are. But I talked earlier about the importance we attach
to giving appropriate clarity to shareholders about what our intentions are. And I dont think I
can add, at a general level, much to that. Chris may want to add other specifics.
CL At a specific level, I understand the analysis that youre doing, and I think in the short term,
its very unlikely that you would see those sorts of levels of return arising. Remember, though,
our dividend policy is a through the cycle policy, and I can see evidence of opportunities where
actually, despite the economic environment, or maybe because of it, you see significant re-pricing,
you see significant opportunities in terms of margins, and whilst volumes may be down, you can see
the potential, looking out, for when margins may actually be better than they were last year and
the year before.
JSV Can I take a call from the telephone line now?
OP Weve got a question coming through from the line of Mamotosi from MSG Global. Please go ahead.
Mamoun Tazi Yes, good morning, Mamoun Tazi from MF Global. Im trying to be the devils advocate
here, but isnt this a knee-jerk reaction, late knee-jerk reaction to what some market participants
have been criticising you for not doing anything about capital? Would it not have been better to
consider every growth opportunity on its own, as opposed to just deluge shareholders by the tune of
20%?
JSV Well, what weve done is weve worked on a structure, which had some objectives, which Ive
described earlier. And as soon as we were ready to launch that, we launched it. And when I look
at whether it ticks the boxes of our objectives, it does. Remember that the biggest opportunity to
participate is the opportunity of existing shareholders. And that isnt a coincidence; weve
structured it in that way. The firm element of the issuance relates to about 21/2% of our capital,
and weve had to ask ourselves, of course, whether we can justify, in our minds, and therefore to
our shareholders, the benefit to Barclays of
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having a non pre-emptive component within the overall
capital raising mix. We believe we can. And weve talked about that in the benefits that we see
attaching to SMBC joining our share register and the Memorandum of Understanding that weve signed.
So thats the way that we look at it. And I think that the structure has a number of advantages.
And were clear about our ability to put the capital to work, partly to...
MT I dont doubt that; Im just questioning the timing of it as well. I mean, wouldnt it have
been better for shareholders to consider something, maybe three or four months ago when the share
price wasnt much higher than what it is today?
JSV Well, this transaction was not available three or four months ago. We have created a
transaction that satisfies the objectives that Ive described, and I said, as soon as we were ready
to bring it forward, we brought it forward. And given the extent to which the share issue
opportunity is dominated by the rights of existing shareholders, I think we have protected the
interests of existing shareholders. Weve been very, weve certainly been very diligent in trying
to ensure that we have, and I believe that we have.
MT Okay. Thank you.
JSV Thank you. One more telephone question.
OP Thank you. The next question comes through from the line of James Eden from Exane Paribas. Go
ahead.
James Eden Yes, good morning. Its great news that none of the money being raised is needed to pay
for write downs. Obviously, lots of people think you guys are still in denial on this front, so
its good to hear that some disposals are starting to take place to prove some of the marks that
youve taken. Id like to ask a question about Japanese consumer finance companies, which are in
major difficulties at the moment. Can you please tell us how big your exposure is to these
companies, as Im worried that it might be several billion pounds? Thanks.
JSV Ill ask the Finance Director to comment on that.
CL Im not sure that theres any exposure that we have to Japanese institutions that is either
significant enough to disclose to you, or worry us enough to have to impair, but more than that,
thats probably about as far as I can go.
JSV I mean, as you know, in our report on accounts, we give pretty good disclosure of the make up
of the credit exposures and loan book by category and by geography. And so if the particular
sector that youre talking about were material, just as Chris says, you would see that. So I dont
think its something that you should be worried about.
JSV Time for one more question by telephone, if there is one, and one more question from over here
on the left. Here comes the mike.
Manus Costello Thanks very much. Its Manus Costello from Merrill Lynch. Can I just invite you
please to be a little bit more specific about your mono-line exposures and potential write downs?
You had at the IMS state, I think, 2.8 billion of exposures. Am I to understand from what you were
saying to the
previous question that those exposures have not increased and that recent events over the last few
weeks are not going to cause any further marks on those positions?
CL There will be some increase in the exposure because some of the assets that are wrapped reduce
in value. That is no different to anybody else. When I look at the overall quality of whats
within the portfolio thats wrapped, I feel very comfortable that relative, weve got a good
exposure into different asset classes. And I come back to the level of exposure to CLOs that make
up 60 odd percent of the overall
17
exposure. In terms of impact of the market on the mono-lines, we,
of course, will be impacted because we participate in that market. As Bob said though, the basis
of valuation includes a credit adjustment, which was tracking, not only ratings reductions but also
changes in things like credit default swap spreads, and that will continue to happen. And I think,
therefore, as and when the market deteriorates, he would expect us to be reflecting that in our
marks. And Im sure we will be doing that.
JSV We can take one more in the room if anyone has one, in the back.
James Alexander James Alexander from M&G. I just wanted to ask about the new capital you are
raising and the return you are going to get on the new capital. So I guess that it is doing quite a
lot of jobs the new capital, part of it is strengthening the capital base. In so far as you are
strengthening the capital base you cant really put it to work earning 25% returns on equity
because it has got to strengthen your capital base, not put to one side. How is that going to be
allocated that £4.5bn between strengthening the business and taking advantage of the opportunities
that you have talked about.
JSV What Chris said in his presentation is that the if you look at the proforma ratios something
around half of the capital we are raising is going towards enabling us to run ratios ahead of
targets and the rest will be put to work and what we have tried to emphasis is that in putting that
to work we see opportunities now and I hope that you can see in the activity levels at Barclays
today that opportunity is quite a significant one. Now of course to the extent that weve got
additional capital that is supporting ratios rather than driving new business opportunity that will
act as a drag on return, of course, the arithmetic is very clear. But we are conscious of that when
we think of the other commitments that we have made today.
CL I think that when I look at it and for planning and modelling purposes we assume that half and
it is difficult to say its half because capital is fungible, but from a calculation perspective if
thats put into a risk free return, that starts to give you a flavour for what the return
expectation of that is, and on the other half we use something that is more akin to the average
return we make across the group.
JSV Can we thank those who have joined us by webcast and by telephone as well as those who have
taken the trouble to join us physically very much for being here this morning and we will draw
matters to an end now thank you.
Disclaimer
During the presentation, Barclays PLC (Barclays) representatives may have made forward-looking
statements within the meaning of the US securities laws. By their nature, forward-looking
statements involve risk and uncertainty and as a result Barclays Groups actual results may differ
materially from the plans, goals and expectations talked about.
Barclays has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (the SEC) for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you
invest and if you are a US holder of Barclays ordinary shares or Barclays ADSs, you should read the
prospectus in that registration statement and other documents Barclays has filed with the SEC for
more complete information about the issuer and the offering. Investors may get these documents for
free by visiting
EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, Barclays
or its information agent will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll-free +1 877 282 6527.
This document and the dissemination of the information contained in it shall not constitute an
offer to buy, sell, issue or subscribe for, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, sell, issue or
subscribe for, any securities, nor shall there be any sale of securities in any jurisdiction in
which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification
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18
affected by the laws of the relevant
jurisdictions. Such persons should inform themselves about and observe any applicable requirements.
This document should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus relating to the new ordinary
shares, a copy of which will be filed with the FSA and will be made available to the public as
required by section 3.2 of the Prospectus Rules. The Prospectus will be available, free of charge,
at Barclays registered office and on its website www.barclays.com . In the event that there is any
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