Arch MI’s HaMMR Predicts the Housing Slowdown Will Lead to a Soft Landing for Prices

Nationally, Annual Home Price Growth Is Not Expected to Turn Negative — Even as GDP Growth Slows and Unemployment Rises

Home-price appreciation isn’t expected to experience a sustained decline on a national basis over the next year, even though there’s a strong chance the overall economy could enter a recession, according to the new edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) released today by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (Arch MI), a leading provider of mortgage insurance.

HaMMR also examines the impact of declining affordability and focuses on the similarities — and differences — between the surging mortgage costs facing current homebuyers and the home-price run-ups of the 1980s and the mid-2000s.

“Key factors bolstering our belief in a soft landing for national home prices are the still-tight inventory of homes for sale and the long-term fundamental shortage of homes,” said HaMMR author Parker Ross, Arch Global Mortgage Group’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Despite the slowdown in home sales activity, the market for existing homes has yet to recover to typical pre-pandemic inventory levels as the pace of new listings has slowed as well. We also estimate the U.S. was short 4 million homes as of 2020 due to over a decade of underbuilding. A persistently supply-constrained market is not a precursor to widespread or sustained price declines.”

Commentary resources:

  • The Housing and Mortgage Market Review is posted at In the current issue, Arch MI’s economic team gauges the strength of the housing market and compares current economic measures to periods of recession in recent history.
  • Parker Ross will host a Housing Update Webinar on Tuesday, Sept. 27, at 1 p.m. ET, covering the main HaMMR points and offering his perspective on the direction of the U.S. housing market. Registration is available at

About Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Arch MI, is a leading provider of private insurance covering mortgage credit risk. Headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina, Arch MI's mission is to protect lenders against credit risk, while extending the possibility of responsible homeownership to qualified borrowers. Arch MI’s flagship mortgage insurer, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, is licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. For more information, visit

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for forward-looking statements. This release or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of Arch Capital Group Ltd. and its subsidiaries may include forward-looking statements , which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in or incorporated by reference in this release are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe" or "continue" or their negative or variations or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements involve our current assessment of risks and uncertainties. Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. A non-exclusive list of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements includes the following: adverse general economic and market conditions; increased competition; pricing and policy term trends; fluctuations in the actions of rating agencies and the Company’s ability to maintain and improve its ratings; investment performance; the loss of key personnel; the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, severity and/or frequency of losses, greater than expected loss ratios and adverse development on claim and/or claim expense liabilities; greater frequency or severity of unpredictable natural and man-made catastrophic events, including pandemics such as COVID-19; the impact of acts of terrorism and acts of war; changes in regulations and/or tax laws in the United States or elsewhere; the Company’s ability to successfully integrate, establish and maintain operating procedures as well as consummate acquisitions and integrate the businesses the Company has acquired or may acquire into the existing operations; changes in accounting principles or policies; material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements; availability and cost to the Company of reinsurance to manage the Company’s gross and net exposures; the failure of others to meet their obligations to the Company; changes in the method for determining the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) and the potential replacement of LIBOR and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Source: Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Tag: arch-mortgage



© 2022 Arch Mortgage Insurance Company. All Rights Reserved. Arch MI is a marketing term for Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company. Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and The Housing and Mortgage Market Review are registered marks of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates. HaMMR is a service mark of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates.


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