(The Assessment covers New York, New England, and Eastern Canada)
The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment forecasts the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer. The overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is forecasted to be approximately 104,600 MW, which is approximately 400 MW lower than last summer. A total installed capacity of about 157,000 MW is projected to be in place to meet electricity demand in the Region. NPCC’s installed capacity has decreased by approximately 1,300 MW from last summer. The largest capacity decrease occurred in Ontario due to the planned retirement of the Pickering G1 and G4 nuclear units.
Forecasts also indicate sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. NPCC’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) this summer is estimated to range from 4,700 MW to over 17,000 MW.
“NPCC’s assessment indicates our Region has spare capacity for this summer, which can be used to help mitigate reliability risks that may result from unexpected unavailability of key facilities, fuel supply interruptions, generation maintenance, or higher than anticipated demand,” said Charles Dickerson, NPCC President and Chief Executive Officer.
New England, the state of New York and the Canadian Provinces of Ontario, Québec and the Maritimes are forecasted to have adequate supplies of electricity this summer. Due to its winter peaking nature, Québec is expected to meet forecast electricity demand by a wide margin enabling transfers of surplus electricity supplies to other Areas of the Region, if needed.
The assessment considered a wide range of associated risks, including higher than expected demand, forecast demand uncertainty, unexpected generator plant outages, transmission constraints between neighboring Regions and within NPCC, the implementation of operating procedures, the estimated impact of demand response programs, and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.
“NPCC continues to see sustained growth in distributed photovoltaic resources,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC Chief Engineer and Senior Vice President of External Affairs. “The reduction to NPCC’s summer peak demand due to behind-the-meter photovoltaic resources is estimated to be over 4,000 MW.”
Throughout the summer, NPCC will continue to monitor the operating conditions of the bulk power system. As part of these efforts, NPCC conducts daily and week-ahead calls between NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions, coordinate planned maintenance and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions. In addition, NPCC supports industry-wide reliability and security coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.
Solar storms are expected to increase in occurrence and severity again this summer. NPCC is prepared to initiate its procedures designed to mitigate the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the power system.
The NPCC 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment is available at: Resources | NPCC.
About NPCC
Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada, and portions of Mexico that, in concert with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, seeks to assure a highly reliable, resilient, and secure North American bulk power system through the effective and efficient identification, reduction, and mitigation of reliability risks. NPCC’s geographic area includes the six New England states, the State of New York, the provinces of Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by approximately 62 million people.
NPCC carries out its mission through: (i) the development of regional reliability standards and compliance assessment and enforcement of continent-wide and Regional Reliability standards; (ii) coordination of system planning, design and operations, and assessment of reliability; and, (iii) the establishment of Regionally-specific criteria and monitoring and enforcement of compliance with such criteria.
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