The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down up by -0.06%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -0.38%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.12%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.39%.
Stock indexes are under pressure today amid higher bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield up +2 bp to 4.08%. Today’s decline in initial jobless claims to a 3-year low was hawkish for Fed policy and pushed T-note yields higher. Also, a Reuters report today said the BOJ is likely to raise interest rates this month and that the government would tolerate the move, pushing Japan JGB yields to an 18-year high and undercutting T-note prices. In addition, weakness in chip makers is weighing on the broader equity market.
Some positive corporate news today is supportive for stocks. Dollar General is up more than +8% after boosting its full-year comparable sales forecast. Also, Hormel Foods is up more than +3% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 EPS. In addition, Meta Platforms is up more than +3% after CEO Zuckerberg said he plans to cut the metaverse group’s budget by up to 30% next year.
US Nov Challenger job cuts rose +23.5% y/y to 71,321, a smaller increase than expectations of +48.0% y/y but still the highest in three years for the month of November.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by -27,000 to a 3-year low of 191,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 220,000.
President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026. Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. The Fed’s independence would come into question, as Hassett supports President Trump’s approach to cutting interest rates at the Fed.
Market attention this week will focus on the US economic news. Later today, Sep factory orders are expected to rise by +0.3% m/m. On Friday, Sep personal spending is expected to increase by +0.3% and Sep personal income is expected to climb +0.3% m/m. Also on Friday, the Sep core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to climb by +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan's Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +1.0 to 52.0.
The markets are discounting a 91% chance of another -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 475 of the 500 S&P companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 2.5-week high and is up +0.49%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.06%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a 3-week high and closed up sharply by +2.33%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -7 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up by +1.9 bp to 4.083%. T-note prices are under pressure today amid negative carryover from a plunge in Japanese 10-year JGB bond prices to an 18-year low, as prospects for a BOJ rate hike later this month improved. T-notes added to their losses today after US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell to a 3-year low, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. Rising inflation expectations are also undercutting T-notes after the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high today at 2.274%.
European government bond yields are mixed today. The 10-year German bund yield climbed to a 2-month high of 2.775% and is up by +2.2 bp to 2.769%. The 10-year UK gilt yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.418% and is down by -1.3 bp to 4.435%.
Eurozone Oct retail sales were unchanged m/m, right on expectations.
ECB Executive Board member Cipollone said, "The Eurozone economy has been resilient, risks around inflation seem balanced, and our central scenario seems more and more credible."
Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Movers
The weakness in chip makers is a negative factor for the overall market. Micron Technology (MU) is down more than -3% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Intel (INTC) and ON Semiconductor (ON) are down more than -2%. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ASML Holding NV (ASML), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Lam Research (LRCX), and GlobalFoundries (GFS) are down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -1%. MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are down more than -2%. Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) are down more than -1%. In addition, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is down -0.74%
UiPath (PATH) is up more than +13% after reporting Q3 total revenue of $411.1 million, above the consensus of $392.8 million.
Dollar General (DG) is up more than +8% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 net sales of $10.65 billion, better than the consensus of $10.62 billion, and raising its 2026 net sales forecast to +4.7% to +4.9% from a previous forecast of +4.3% to +4.8%.
Brown-Forman (BF.B) is up more than +4% after reporting Q2 net sales of $1.04 billion, above the consensus of $1.02 billion.
Meta Platforms (META) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 after CEO Zuckerberg said he plans to cut the metaverse group’s budget by up to 30% next year.
Hormel Foods (HRL) is up more than +3% after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of 32 cents, better than the consensus of 30 cents, and forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.43 to $1.51, the midpoint above the consensus of $1.44.
Five Below (FIVE) is up more than +2% after reporting Q3 net sales of $1.04 billion, stronger than the consensus of $975.3 million, and raising its 2025 net sales forecast to $4.62 billion-$4.65 billion from a previous estimate of $4.44 billion-$4.52 billion, well above the consensus of $4.52 billion.
Genesco (GCO) is down more than -26% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of 79 cents, weaker than the consensus of 86 cents, and forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of 95 cents, well below the consensus of $1.55.
UniQure NV (QURE) is down more than -13% after announcing that the FDA indicated data from its Phase I/II studies of its AMT-130, an investigational gene therapy for Huntington’s disease, is currently unlikely to provide primary evidence to support a Biologics License Application submission.
Symbotic (SYM) is down more than -12% after an affiliate of SoftBank Group is said to sell 10 million shares of its Symbotic stock holdings.
Snowflake (SNOW) is down more than -10% after forecasting Q4 adjusted operating income margin of about 7%, weaker than the consensus of 8.5%.
Kroger (KR) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 sales of $33.9 billion, weaker than the consensus of $34.2 billion.
Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) closed down more than -3% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $56.
Lennar (LEN) is down more than -1% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral with a price target of $115.
Earnings Reports(12/4/2025)
Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B), Cooper Cos Inc/The (COO), Docusign Inc (DOCU), Dollar General Corp (DG), Donaldson Co Inc (DCI), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (HPE), Hormel Foods Corp (HRL), Kroger Co/The (KR), Rubrik Inc (RBRK), Samsara Inc (IOT), Science Applications International Corp (SAIC), SentinelOne Inc (S), Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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