Over the past six months, Howard Hughes Holdings’s shares (currently trading at $72.86) have posted a disappointing 11.8% loss, well below the S&P 500’s 7.7% gain. This might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy Howard Hughes Holdings, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Howard Hughes Holdings Will Underperform?
Despite the more favorable entry price, we’re cautious about Howard Hughes Holdings. Here are three reasons we avoid HHH, plus one stock we’d rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, Howard Hughes Holdings grew its sales at a 16.2% compounded annual growth rate. Although this growth is acceptable on an absolute basis, it fell slightly short of our standards for the consumer discretionary sector, which enjoys a number of secular tailwinds.
2. New Investments Bear Fruit as ROIC Jumps
ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
On average, Howard Hughes Holdings’s ROIC increased by 1.3 percentage points annually each year over the last few years. This is a good sign, and we hope the company can continue improving.
3. High Debt Levels Increase Risk
As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.
Howard Hughes Holdings’s $5.80 billion of debt exceeds the $2.49 billion of cash on its balance sheet. Furthermore, its 7× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio (based on its EBITDA of $502 million over the last 12 months) shows the company is overleveraged.
At this level of debt, incremental borrowing becomes increasingly expensive and credit agencies could downgrade the company’s rating if profitability falls. Howard Hughes Holdings could also be backed into a corner if the market turns unexpectedly – a situation we seek to avoid as investors in high-quality companies.
We hope Howard Hughes Holdings can improve its balance sheet and remain cautious until it increases its profitability or pays down its debt.
Final Judgment
Howard Hughes Holdings doesn’t pass our quality test. After the recent drawdown, the stock trades at $72.86 per share (or a trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.9×). The market typically values companies like Howard Hughes Holdings based on their anticipated profits for the next 12 months, but there aren’t enough published estimates to arrive at a reliable number. You should avoid this stock for now - better opportunities lie elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at one of our top digital advertising picks.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Howard Hughes Holdings
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