Man, what a year 2025 turned out to be for us in the futures markets. If you were trading commodities, you probably felt like you were on a rollercoaster blindfolded while enduring sharp spikes, gut-wrenching drops, and enough geopolitical curveballs to make your head spin. Overall, the markets got hammered by weak global growth, overflowing supplies in key sectors, and the lingering policy fog from tariffs and elections. The World Bank's Commodity Markets report nailed it: prices dropped about 7% this year, with more pain expected in 2026.
But it wasn't all doom, the World Bank Group reported precious metals stole the show, while energy and ags mostly floundered. Let's break it down, then peek at what's coming.
Starting with energy, the big story was oil's epic face-plant. Brent kicked off strong, jumping by more than 10% to hit $83 a barrel in January 2025 as supply fears from Ukraine and Middle East tensions flared. Then reality hit: surging non-OPEC output, sluggish demand from a sputtering global economy, and OPEC+ fumbling their cuts like a bad poker hand. By year-end, Brent's hovering around $60, down nearly 19% YTD, eyeing a five-year low.
WTI's not far behind at $58 after peaking early in 2025 at $79. Trump's return to the White House added fuel, literally, with his pro-drilling stance reshaping policy, but global market conditions have prevented this shift from ending a persistent oil glut.
Natural gas? Volatile as ever, but LNG trade routes shifted amid sanctions and Asia's green push. Volumes hit records at CME of 30.2 million contracts in Q2.
If you shorted crude oil midsummer at $73, you're probably buying the drinks. Metals were the bright spot, especially the shinies. Gold smashed through $4,000/oz in October, only to return there and find significant support, leading to a whopping 67% YTD to an all-time high of around $4,530.
Silver? Forget it, this metal surged 103%, leading all commodities.
Why? Inflation stuck around 3%, a strong dollar (until it wasn't), and safe-haven buying amid trade wars, the FED pushing the gas pedal on interest rate cuts, and volatility spikes.
Industrial metals like copper got a boost from EV demand, pushing Copper prices to record highs in 2025, driven by strong demand from the AI data center and renewable energy sectors, combined with significant supply disruptions. Tariffs dinged copper in July, pushing prices down to $4.3704, and have since rallied back to the July highs of $5.7500.
Cattle futures joined the winners, with feeder and live cattle up strongly before some profit-taking when the U.S. announced, in October, that it would be importing Argentine beef while prices were trading at all-time highs of $244.00.
Ag markets? A mixed bag, leaning sour. Grains like corn and wheat slid under ideal weather conditions and bumper harvests, leading corn to be down big in Q2. In the softs, sugar was hit with heavy selling and tanked along with grains.
In 2025, the U.S. soybean crop reached an estimated 4.25 billion bushels, characterized by record-high national yields of 53.0 bushels per acre despite a 7% reduction in harvested area. The year was marked by severe trade disruptions as retaliatory Chinese tariffs led to a collapse in exports to China, bringing them to near zero for six months, though a late-October agreement eventually secured commitments for renewed purchases. Internally, the industry pivoted toward domestic demand, with record-high soybean "crush" volumes of 2.49 billion bushels to meet the growing needs of the biomass-based diesel and meal sectors.
Looking to 2026, buckle up—it's not looking calmer according to some of the bigger players:
- The World Bank projects that global commodity prices will fall to their lowest level in six years by 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
- Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to continue declining through 2026 due to a persistent market surplus of around 2 million barrels per day. This oversupply is the result of long-cycle projects sanctioned before the pandemic now coming online, coupled with OPEC+'s strategic decision to unwind its production cuts.
- Trump's whirlwind might boost U.S. output, but EU imports won't triple, zero chance, per Reuters.
- ING is bearish on energy but bullish on most metals with tighter balances.
And what would a New Year be without analysts and their opinions?
- Gold? Analysts eye $5,000
- Silver staying above $65
- According to the July 2025 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Agricultural Outlook for 2025-2034, global agricultural markets are projected to remain in a period of relative stability, with the caveat that this depends on stable weather conditions. The outlook explicitly states that real prices for most agricultural commodities are expected to trend gradually downward over the next decade, primarily driven by sustained productivity improvements and efficiency gains.
- Morgan Stanley is optimistic on broad commodities, citing volatility adjustment and supply tweaks.
In Closing:
2025 tested our nerves with Trump trades, surplus squeezes, and metal mania. For 2026, play the divergences: short energy if supplies swell, long precious metals if inflation lingers. Watch those macro cues like hawks; one wrong tariff tweet could flip the script. As we end 2025, many markets are currently in the trends discussed here. Stay nimble, traders!
Here's to profitable positions for 2026.
On the date of publication, Don Dawson did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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