Nutrien Delivers Record Results and Expects Continued Growth in 2022

All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its fourth quarter 2021 results, with net earnings of $1.2 billion ($2.11 diluted net earnings per share). Fourth-quarter adjusted net earnings¹ were $2.47 per share and adjusted EBITDA¹ was $2.5 billion.

“The advantages of Nutrien’s integrated business were demonstrated in 2021 as we delivered record financial results³ and made significant progress on our long-term strategic targets, including our key sustainability priorities. We utilized the scale and reliability of our world-class supply chain and the strong execution of our teams to ensure customers had the products and services they needed, when they needed them,” commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s Interim President and CEO.

“The outlook for global agriculture and crop input markets is very strong and we are well positioned to deliver significant growth in earnings and free cash flow in 2022. We will continue to advance our strategic priorities and maintain a disciplined approach to deploying capital, using our strong financial position to grow the business and return significant cash to shareholders,” added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights:

• Nutrien generated net earnings of $1.2 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter while generating $3.2 billion of net earnings ($5.52 diluted net earnings per share) and record adjusted EBITDA of $7.1 billion ($6.23 adjusted net earnings per share) for the full year of 2021. Cash flow provided by operating activities in the full year was $3.9 billion.

• We prioritized the use of cash in 2021 to strengthen and reposition the balance sheet, reducing our long-term debt by $2.1 billion. We deployed $2.1 billion to dividends and share repurchases in 2021 repurchasing 15 million shares during the year under our normal course issuer bid (NCIB). To date, we have repurchased over 22 million shares under our NCIB program. Nutrien’s Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share and approved the purchase of up to 10 percent of Nutrien’s outstanding common shares over a one-year period through a NCIB. The NCIB is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

• Nutrien issued full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance¹ of $10.0 to $11.2 billion and $10.20 to $11.80 per share. Adjusted net earnings per share guidance includes our plans to allocate a minimum of $2 billion to share repurchases in 2022 on a balanced cadence throughout the year.

• Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”) delivered record adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter and surpassed $1.9 billion for the full year of 2021. We exceeded nearly all of our 2023 strategic targets including a record 10.9 percent Retail adjusted EBITDA margin² and increased our proprietary product related gross margin to more than $1 billion in 2021, an increase of 22 percent.

• The reliability and efficiency of our global supply chain and strategic procurement helped drive our Retail normalized comparable store sales¹ to 7 percent and Retail adjusted EBITDA per US selling location² to $1.5 million during 2021. We closed 14 acquisitions during the year and increased our Retail digital platform sales² to $2.1 billion.

• Potash adjusted EBITDA surpassed $1 billion in the fourth quarter and increased 130 percent in the full year of 2021 to $2.7 billion. We achieved record sales volumes of 13.6 million tonnes in 2021 due to our capability to quickly ramp up production from our flexible, low-cost network of six mines. We progressed our Potash Next Generation initiatives and produced 1 million tonnes in 2021 using tele-remote and autonomous mining techniques.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA was $921 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased 114 percent to $2.3 billion in the full year of 2021. We completed our phase 1 brownfield expansion projects on time and on budget, launched a second phase of projects and progressed decarbonization initiatives.

• Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was $196 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased 133 percent to $540 million in the full year of 2021.

Market Outlook

Agriculture and Retail

• Global inventory for key grains and oilseeds remains historically low due to a combination of weather-related events and strong demand fueled by a greater focus on global food security and recovering feed and bio-energy related markets.
• Corn and soybean prices in the US and Brazil remain very strong and prospective crop margins are well above the 10-year average. We expect this will incentivize growers to invest in their crops.
• US growers experienced favorable fall weather conditions that combined with strong crop economics, supported a second consecutive year of strong fall fertilizer application. We expect overall planted area of major crops to be similar to 2021 levels, with corn and soybean acreage in the range of 91 to 93 million and 87 to 89 million, respectively.
• Growers in Brazil planted an additional 4 million acres of soybeans which was a second consecutive year of record planting. However, yields have been impacted by drought conditions in major growing regions. We expect strong crop economics will support total Brazilian planted acreage and crop input demand in 2022. Australian growers continue to experience favorable weather conditions and harvested record wheat production.
• Nutrien is well-positioned on fertilizer and crop protection product inventory to begin the North American planting season. Our Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes there was some pull forward of fertilizer sales volumes due to the strong fall season in North America and that Retail fertilizer margins return to historical average levels after increasing in 2021 due to strategic procurement in a rising price environment.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash prices increased in response to record global demand of 70 million in 2021 and tightness of supply due to competitor mine flooding, new project delays and uncertainty around sanctions imposed on Belarus by the US and Europe. We believe that many of these supply issues will continue into 2022, including additional restrictions imposed on Belarus potash transported through Lithuania. We estimate 2022 global shipments in a range of 68 to 71 million tonnes.
• Nutrien expects record potash sales volumes between 13.7 to 14.3 million tonnes in 2022. This forecast assumes sanctions on Belarus have a temporary impact on global supply. If there was a more significant long-term impact on global supply, Nutrien has the capability to further ramp up production by hiring additional employees and incurring some small incremental capital expenditures.
• Nitrogen prices have been supported by strong demand, soaring energy prices in Europe, and government restrictions and geopolitical risks in key export markets. Global urea prices softened in early 2022 during a seasonally slow period, however, ammonia and nitrates prices continue to strengthen due to supply side constraints. North American natural gas prices increased in early 2022 but we expect Henry Hub prices to average between $3.75 and $4.25 per MMBtu in 2022, well below import pricing levels in Europe and Asia.
• We expect to increase Nitrogen sales volumes to 10.8 to 11.3 million tonnes in 2022 with the completion of Phase 1 brownfield expansion projects in 2021 and higher anticipated operating rates.
• Phosphate prices have been supported by the expected reduction in supply from China due to export restrictions and elevated raw material input cost. This is compounded by tight inventories in key import markets such as India.

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Based on market factors detailed above, we are issuing full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10.0 to $11.2 billion and full-year 2022 adjusted net earnings guidance of $10.20 to $11.80 per share. Adjusted net earnings per share guidance includes our plans to allocate a minimum of $2 billion to share repurchases in 2022 on a balanced cadence throughout the year.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above and related sensitives are outlined in the tales below.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA increased significantly in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020. This was due to higher net realized selling prices across our nutrient businesses, higher potash sales volumes, strong organic and proprietary product sales growth in Retail. In 2020, we recorded a non-cash impairment of $824 million primarily related to our Phosphate business and a gain of $250 million realized in the fourth quarter of 2020 related to the Misr Fertilizers Production Company S.A.E. (“MOPCO”) divestment with no similar transactions in 2021. Cash flow provided by operating activities increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due primarily to higher net earnings. The COVID-19 pandemic had a limited impact on our results during the fourth quarter and full year of 2021.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2021 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2020, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”)

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to increased sales and gross margin achieved through market share growth, strong agriculture fundamentals and expansion in South America. Gross margin increases were supported by strategic procurement of crop nutrients and crop protection products in a rising price environment and a 22 percent increase in proprietary product related gross margin. Retail cash operating coverage ratio¹ declined to 58 percent in 2021 due to significantly higher gross margin.
• Crop nutrients sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to record sales volumes and higher selling prices. Gross margin per tonne increased by $31 per tonne in 2021 due to strategic purchasing in a rising price environment and higher proprietary product sales.
• Crop protection products sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to market share growth, higher prices and increased proprietary product sales across all geographies, especially in Australia where uptake by customers was exceptional. The reliability of our supply chain, growth in proprietary product contribution and strategic procurement supports our ability to deliver on strong grower demand throughout the year.
• Seed sales increased in the fourth quarter primarily due to significant organic growth achieved in South America and Australia following recent expansion initiatives and acquisitions. Gross margin percentage decreased in the fourth quarter due to the timing and mix of seed sales in the US. Seed sales for the full year of 2021 increased in all key regions where we operate due to higher planted acreage, higher prices and significant organic growth in South America. Gross margin percentage for 2021 increased due to price increases, including from our proprietary product.
• Merchandise sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 primarily driven by strong grower and rancher purchasing in Australia.
• Nutrien Financial sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to higher utilization and adoption of our programs. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 net receivables in the programs were $2.2 billion, an increase of $0.8 billion compared to the same period in 2020, while credit loss was minimal in 2021 and 2020 due to strong credit evaluation and collection as well as favorable market conditions this past year.
• Services and other sales decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due to the divestiture of an Australian livestock export business in the fourth quarter of 2020, which more than offset increases in other Australian services and higher US custom application sales. Despite the change in revenue mix, gross margin increased and the impact to gross margin percentage was favorable for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2021.

Potash

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to higher net realized selling prices and record sales volumes attributed to our ability to increase production by nearly 1 million tonnes.
• Sales volumes were a record for the fourth quarter as we surged production to meet strong global demand and very tight global supply. We achieved this despite weather-related issues that temporarily impacted rail deliveries. North America and Offshore sales volumes in the full year of 2021 were the highest on record underpinned by the reliable supply from our flexible, low-cost network of six mines and integrated transportation and logistics system.
• Net realized selling price increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to strong global demand supported by higher crop prices, impacts to global supply caused by competitor outages and project delays as well as uncertainty regarding future sanctions on Belarus.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the fourth quarter due to lower depreciation and amortization compared to the same period of 2020 that was caused by production mix and timing of maintenance projects. Cost of goods sold per tonne increased for the full year of 2021 primarily due to higher royalties resulting from increased selling prices, a stronger Canadian dollar and cost inflation for energy and other inputs.

Canpotex Sales by Market

Nitrogen

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 primarily due to higher net realized selling prices, which more than offset higher natural gas costs.
• Sales volumes decreased slightly in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to more planned plant turnaround activity, temporary production outages and lower inventory volumes at the beginning of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Ammonia operating rates reached 97 percent in the fourth quarter and 90 percent for the full year of 2021.
• Net realized selling price in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 was higher due to higher benchmark prices resulting from the strength in global demand and tight global supply caused by production outages and higher energy prices in key nitrogen exporting regions.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne increased during the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 primarily due to higher natural gas costs.

Natural Gas Prices in Cost of Production

• Natural gas prices in our cost of production increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 as a result of higher North American gas index prices and increased gas costs in Trinidad, where our gas prices are linked to ammonia benchmark prices.

Phosphate

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to higher net realized selling prices, which more than offset higher raw material costs and lower sales volumes for the full year.
• Sales volumes increased in the fourth quarter of 2021 due to the timing and sales mix of certain fertilizer products and higher operating rates. Lower inventory levels at the beginning of 2021 and a greater mix of higher P₂O₅ content sales resulted in slightly lower sales volumes during the full year of 2021. P₂O₅ production increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to improved reliability at our Aurora and White Springs plants.
• Net realized selling price increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 as a result of robust global phosphate demand, tight inventories and higher global raw material costs. Industrial and feed prices increased to a lesser extent than fertilizer in both comparative periods due to a lag in price realizations relative to spot prices.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 primarily due to significantly higher raw material input costs which more than offset lower depreciation and amortization. Comparative results for the full year of 2020 were also impacted by a $46 million favorable change in estimate related to an asset retirement obligation recorded in the second quarter of 2020.

Corporate and Others

• Share-based compensation expense was higher in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due to an increase in our share price resulting in a higher value of share-based awards outstanding.
• Other expenses were higher in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due to higher foreign exchange losses, higher expense related to asset retirement obligations and accrued environment costs for our non-operating sites from changes in our cost and discount rate estimates, and additional cloud computing related expenses recognized in the first half of 2021 due to our change in accounting policy. This was partially offset by lower integration and restructuring related costs.

Eliminations

Eliminations of gross margin between operating segments for the full year of 2021 were $(89) million compared to a $21 million gross margin recovery for the same period in 2020. We had significant eliminations in 2021 due to higher-margin inventories held by our Retail segment as global commodity benchmark prices increased. Eliminations are not part of the Corporate and Others segment.

Finance Costs, Income Tax Expense (Recovery) and Other Comprehensive Income

• Finance costs in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 were higher compared to the same periods in 2020 mainly due to a loss of $142 million on early extinguishment of long-term debt, which primarily represents interest that we would have paid in future years if the long-term debt was not extinguished.
• Income tax expense in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 was higher as a result of significantly higher earnings in 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020. In addition, in 2020, discrete tax recoveries of $80 million primarily related to recoveries of prior year taxes due to US legislative changes.
• Other comprehensive income is primarily driven by changes in the currency translation of our foreign operations and share price movement of our investment in Sinofert Holdings Ltd. In 2020, we had a higher gain on translation of our Retail operations in Australia as the Australian dollar strengthened relative to the US dollar. In 2021, the Australian dollar weakened relative to the US dollar resulting in lower other comprehensive income.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within the "Financial Outlook and Guidance" section, constitute “forward-looking information” or “forward-looking statements” (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as “anticipate”, “forecast”, “expect”, “believe”, “may”, “will”, “should”, “estimate”, “intend” or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: Nutrien's business strategies, plans, prospects and opportunities; Nutrien's 2022 full-year guidance, including expectations regarding our adjusted net earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment); expectations regarding our growth and capital allocation intentions and strategies; capital spending expectations for 2022; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2022, including our operating segment market outlooks and market conditions for 2022, and the anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, grower crop investment, crop mix, prices and the impact of import and export volumes and economic sanctions; Nutrien's ability to develop innovative and sustainable solutions; the negotiation of sales contracts; expected benefits from our brownfield expansion projects; and acquisitions and divestitures. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, having regard to our experience and our perception of historical trends, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. Current conditions, economic and otherwise, render assumptions, although reasonable when made, subject to greater uncertainty. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of our already completed and future acquisitions and divestitures, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies in respect of any acquired businesses and to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by us, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2022 and in the future; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of the COVID-19 pandemic on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; our ability to successfully negotiate sales contracts; and our ability to successfully implement new initiatives and programs.

Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and cybersecurity risks related to our systems, including our costs of addressing or mitigating such risks; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; interruptions of or constraints in availability of key inputs, including natural gas and sulfur; any significant impairment of the carrying amount of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the COVID-19 pandemic, including variants of the COVID-19 virus and the efficiency and distribution of vaccines, and its resulting effects on economic conditions, restrictions imposed by public health authorities or governments, including government-imposed vaccine mandates, fiscal and monetary responses by governments and financial institutions and disruptions to global supply chains; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities Exchange Commission in the United States.

The purpose of our adjusted net earnings per share, adjusted EBITDA (consolidated and by segment) and sustaining capital expenditures guidance ranges are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

The forward-looking statements in this document are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable Canadian securities legislation or applicable US federal securities laws.

Terms & Definitions

For the definitions of certain financial and non-financial terms used in this document, as well as a list of abbreviated company names and sources, see the “Terms and Definitions” section of our 2020 Annual Report. All references to per share amounts pertain to diluted net earnings (loss) per share, “n/m” indicates information that is not meaningful, and all financial amounts are stated in millions of US dollars, unless otherwise noted.

About Nutrien

Nutrien is the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, playing a critical role in helping growers increase food production in a sustainable manner. We produce and distribute approximately 27 million tonnes of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products world-wide. With this capability and our leading agriculture retail network, we are well positioned to supply the needs of our customers. We operate with a long-term view and are committed to working with our stakeholders as we address our economic, environmental and social priorities. The scale and diversity of our integrated portfolio provides a stable earnings base, multiple avenues for growth and the opportunity to return capital to shareholders.

Selected financial data for download can be found in our data tool at www.nutrien.com/investors/interactive-datatool

Such data is not incorporated by reference herein.

Nutrien will host a Conference Call on Thursday, February 17, 2022 at 10:00 am Eastern Time.

• In order to expedite access to our conference call, each participant will be required to pre-register for the event:
  • Online: http://www.directeventreg.com/registration/event/3664097.
  • Via Phone: 1-888-869-1189 Conference ID 3664097.
• Once the registration is complete, a confirmation will be sent providing the dial in number and both the Direct Event Passcode and your unique Registrant ID to join this call. For security reasons, please do not share your information with anyone else.
• Live Audio Webcast: Visit http://www.nutrien.com/investors/events/2021-q4-earnings-conference-call

Appendix A - Selected Additional Financial Data

Appendix B - Non-IFRS Financial Measures

We use both International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and certain non-IFRS financial measures to assess performance. Non-IFRS financial measures are financial measures disclosed by a company that (a) depict historical or expected future financial performance, financial position or cash flow of a company, (b) with respect to their composition, exclude amounts that are included in, or include amounts that are excluded from, the composition of the most directly comparable financial measure disclosed in the primary financial statements of the company, (c) are not disclosed in the financial statements of the company and (d) are not a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation. Non-IFRS ratios are financial measures disclosed by a company that are in the form of a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar representation that has a non-IFRS financial measure as one or more of its components, and that are not disclosed in the financial statements of the company.

These non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios are not standardized financial measures under IFRS and, therefore, are unlikely to be comparable to similar financial measures presented by other companies. Management believes these non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios provide transparent and useful supplemental information to help investors evaluate our financial performance, financial condition and liquidity using the same measures as management. These non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

The following section outlines our non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios, their compositions, and why management uses each measure. It includes reconciliations to the most directly comparable IFRS measures. Except as otherwise described herein, our non-IFRS financial measures and non-IFRS ratios are calculated on a consistent basis from period to period and are adjusted for specific items in each period, as applicable. As additional non-recurring or unusual items arise in the future, we generally exclude these items in our calculations.

Adjusted EBITDA (Consolidated)

Most directly comparable IFRS financial measure: Net earnings (loss).

Definition: Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as net earnings (loss) before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation and certain foreign exchange gain/loss (net of related derivatives). We also adjust this measure for the following other income and expenses that are excluded when management evaluates the performance of our day-to-day operations: integration and restructuring related costs, impairment or reversal of impairment of assets, COVID-19 related expenses, gain or loss on disposal of certain businesses and investments, and IFRS adoption transition adjustments. In 2021, we amended our calculation of adjusted EBITDA to adjust for the impact of integration and restructuring related costs and cloud computing transition adjustment. There were no similar expenses in the comparative period.

Why we use the measure and why it is useful to investors: It is not impacted by long-term investment and financing decisions, but rather focuses on the performance of our day-to-day operations. It provides a measure of our ability to service debt and to meet other payment obligations and as a component of employee remuneration calculations.