
Consumer discretionary businesses are levered to the highs and lows of economic cycles. This volatility leads to big swings in stock prices that have worked in their favor recently - over the past six months, the industry has returned 13.3% and beat the S&P 500 by 2.8 percentage points.
Nevertheless, this stability can be deceiving as many companies in this space lack recurring revenue characteristics and ride short-term fads. On that note, here are three consumer stocks we’re swiping left on.
Red Rock Resorts (RRR)
Market Cap: $3.77 billion
Founded in 1976, Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR) operates a range of casino resorts and entertainment properties, primarily in the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
Why Do We Steer Clear of RRR?
- 9% annual revenue growth over the last five years was slower than its consumer discretionary peers
- Poor free cash flow margin of 11.5% for the last two years limits its freedom to invest in growth initiatives, execute share buybacks, or pay dividends
- Unchanged returns on capital make it difficult for the company’s valuation multiple to re-rate
Red Rock Resorts is trading at $63.68 per share, or 25.7x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including RRR in your portfolio.
Lindblad Expeditions (LIND)
Market Cap: $814.5 million
Founded by explorer Sven-Olof Lindblad in 1979, Lindblad Expeditions (NASDAQ: LIND) offers cruising experiences to remote destinations in partnership with National Geographic.
Why Do We Pass on LIND?
- Annual revenue growth of 14.5% over the last two years was below our standards for the consumer discretionary sector
- Poor expense management has led to an operating margin of 4.8% that is below the industry average
- Free cash flow margin is not anticipated to grow over the next year
Lindblad Expeditions’s stock price of $14.73 implies a valuation ratio of 208.8x forward P/E. If you’re considering LIND for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.
YETI (YETI)
Market Cap: $3.83 billion
Founded by two brothers from Texas, YETI (NYSE: YETI) specializes in durable outdoor goods including coolers, drinkware, and other gear tailored to adventure enthusiasts.
Why Is YETI Risky?
- Sales trends were unexciting over the last five years as its 12.7% annual growth was below the typical consumer discretionary company
- Capital intensity will likely increase as its free cash flow margin is anticipated to drop by 13.5 percentage points over the next year
- Shrinking returns on capital from an already weak position reveal that neither previous nor ongoing investments are yielding the desired results
At $49.20 per share, YETI trades at 17.7x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with YETI, check out our full research report (it’s free).
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