February live cattle (LEG26) futures fell $3.90 to $232.15 last Friday, hit a nearly three-week low, and for the week fell $1.575. March feeder cattle futures Friday (GFH26) lost $8.10 to $356.45 and on the week were up $1.75. Both markets were posting modest corrective bounces in morning trading on Tuesday.
Cattle futures traders on Friday were spooked by reports of an additional case of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico — seemingly worried about the northward movement of NWS and its potential impact on consumer demand for beef.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller issued a warning to livestock producers after authorities in Mexico confirmed an NWS case just 215 miles south of the Texas border. NWS in the state of Tamaulipas, which borders Texas, saw new detections raise the total number of confirmed cases in Tamaulipas since December 30, 2025, to 11.
“It’s just plain cowboy logic — when you’re seeing this many cases, this fast, it tells you there may be established screwworm fly populations in Tamaulipas,” Miller said in a press release. “We’re grateful sterile fly deployment has begun but make no mistake: Texas producers need to stay on high alert along our border.”
“Producers should be checking livestock every day and treating any wound as a potential entry point,” Miller added.
However, today’s modest gains in the cattle futures markets suggest cattle traders may have overreacted to the NWS news and the potential for a negative psychological reaction from U.S. consumers at the meat counter. Veteran cattle traders remember the “Mad Cow” disease scare from around 30 years ago that temporarily tanked the cattle futures markets due to the keen uncertainty of the matter.
Cash Cattle and Beef Market Fundamentals Remain Solid
The cattle futures markets remain supported by firming cash cattle prices and elevated wholesale boxed beef ($CBBI) values. As of last Friday, the USDA reported still-very-quiet cash cattle trading last week with the agency reporting steers averaging $234.45 and heifers averaging $233.72. Those numbers compare to the prior week’s average cash cattle trade reported by USDA at $231.86. USDA will update last week’s average cash cattle trade at midday today.
U.S. retailers still anticipate continued strong consumer demand for beef in the coming months, despite historically high retail beef prices. Consumer confidence remains generally upbeat as recent U.S. economic data, while not robust, certainly does not signal storm clouds on the horizon.
Weather Late This Week May Impact Cattle Marketings in Southern Plains
Weather reports today said livestock stress is expected in southern U.S. Plains production areas Friday through the coming weekend due to snow, sleet, freezing rain, and bitterly cold temperatures. Such may limit cattle movement to markets later this week.
The Potentially Cattle-Market Bullish Protein Policy
President Donald Trump’s administration’s recent revamping of the food pyramid drives home that demand for protein is here to stay.
While tight fed cattle supplies initiated the current bull market, strong demand should continue to power prices, even as retail prices remain elevated. This may be exacerbated by declining slaughter rates over the coming weeks as packers adjust to plant closings and new adjusted slaughter rates in other plants. Select boxed beef values have recently topped Choice values as supplies for the latter make up around three quarters of all domestic fed beef, as quality remains high.
The next major data points for the cattle futures markets are this Friday’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report, which is expected to show continued historically tight supplies of cattle on U.S. feedlots. Then comes the Jan. 30 USDA semiannual U.S. cattle inventory report.
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On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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