Shareholders of Tandem Diabetes would probably like to forget the past six months even happened. The stock dropped 54.1% and now trades at $20.22. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Tandem Diabetes, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.
Despite the more favorable entry price, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why you should be careful with TNDM and a stock we'd rather own.
Why Do We Think Tandem Diabetes Will Underperform?
With technology that automatically adjusts insulin delivery based on continuous glucose monitoring data, Tandem Diabetes Care (NASDAQ: TNDM) develops and manufactures automated insulin delivery systems that help people with diabetes manage their blood glucose levels.
1. Demand Slipping as Sales Volumes Decline
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful Healthcare Technology for Patients company because there’s a ceiling to what customers will pay.
Tandem Diabetes’s pump shipments came in at 24,000 in the latest quarter, and they averaged 1.7% year-on-year declines over the last two years. This performance was underwhelming and implies there may be increasing competition or market saturation. It also suggests Tandem Diabetes might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to grow, factors that can hinder near-term profitability. 
2. EPS Trending Down
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Tandem Diabetes’s earnings losses deepened over the last five years as its EPS dropped 34.7% annually. We tend to steer our readers away from companies with falling EPS, where diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences. If the tide turns unexpectedly, Tandem Diabetes’s low margin of safety could leave its stock price susceptible to large downswings.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
ROIC, or return on invested capital, is a metric showing how much operating profit a company generates relative to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Tandem Diabetes’s ROIC has unfortunately decreased significantly. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.
Final Judgment
Tandem Diabetes doesn’t pass our quality test. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 38.1× forward EV-to-EBITDA (or $20.22 per share). This valuation tells us it’s a bit of a market darling with a lot of good news priced in - we think there are better stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at one of Charlie Munger’s all-time favorite businesses.
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